2024 United States presidential election in Ohio
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Joe Biden
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The 2024 United States presidential election in Ohio is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Ohio voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Ohio has 17 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state lost a seat.[1] While Ohio was considered a crucial swing and bellwether state for decades, it voted significantly more Republican than the nation in both 2016 and 2020. Based on these trends, it is expected to be less heavily contested than in previous presidential election cycles.

Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden is running for reelection to a second term.[2] If he wins without the state again, he will become the first president since Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1944 to win another term without carrying the state.

Primary elections

Democratic primary

Main article: 2024 Ohio Democratic presidential primary

Republican primary

Main article: 2024 Ohio Republican presidential primary

The Ohio Republican primary is scheduled to be held on March 19, 2024, alongside primaries in Arizona, Florida, and Illinois.

General election

Polling

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Other /
Undecided
Emerson College/WJW-TV November 10–13, 2023 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 50% 38% 12%
Data for Progress (D) October 31 – November 2, 2023 597 (LV) ± 4.0% 51% 43% 6%
Ohio Northern University October 16–19, 2023 668 (RV) ± 3.8% 45% 40% 15%[b]
Emerson College October 2-4, 2023 438 (RV) ± 4.5% 45% 33% 23%
Change Research/Future Majority (D) September 16–19, 2023 1,559 (RV) – 48% 43% 9%
Ohio Northern University July 17–26, 2023 675 (RV) ± 3.7% 49% 39% 12%
Targoz Market Research November 2–6, 2022 505 (LV) ± 4.3% 57% 40% 3%
Emerson College October 30 – November 1, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 50% 38% 12%
Ohio Northern University/Lucid October 11–15, 2022 668 (LV) – 55% 35% 10%
Emerson College October 6–7, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 40% 12%
Emerson College September 12–13, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 50% 40% 10%
Echelon Insights August 31 – September 7, 2022 831 (LV) ± 4.3% 49% 41% 10%
Emerson College August 15–16, 2022 925 (LV) ± 3.2% 53% 39% 8%
PEM Management Corporation (R)[A] July 22–24, 2022 300 (LV) ± 5.7% 42% 44% 14%
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Other /
Undecided
Emerson College/WJW-TV November 10–13, 2023 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 45% 31% 8% 1% 2% 13%
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden. vs. Robert F Kennedy Jr.
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Robert F
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
Ohio Northern University October 16–19, 2023 668 (RV) ± 3.8% 42% 35% 11% 12%[c]
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Joe Manchin vs. Cornel West
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Joe
Manchin
Independent 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
Change Research/Future Majority (D) September 16–19, 2023 1,559 (RV) – 42% 34% 6% 6% 12%
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Cornel West
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Cornel
West
Green 		Other /
Undecided
Change Research/Future Majority (D) September 16–19, 2023 1,559 (RV) – 45% 36% 9% 10%
Suffolk University July 9–12, 2023 500 (RV) ± 4.4% 44% 38% 2% 16%
Nikki Haley vs. Joe Biden
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Nikki
Haley
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Other /
Undecided
Ohio Northern University October 16–19, 2023 668 (RV) ± 3.8% 34% 36% 30%[d]
Ohio Northern University July 17–26, 2023 675 (RV) ± 3.7% 38% 38% 24%
Hypothetical polling
Chris Christie vs. Joe Biden
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Chris
Christie
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Other /
Undecided
Ohio Northern University July 17–26, 2023 675 (RV) ± 3.7% 33% 39% 28%
Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Ron
DeSantis
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Other /
Undecided
Ohio Northern University October 16–19, 2023 668 (RV) ± 3.8% 38% 41% 21%[e]
Ohio Northern University July 17–26, 2023 675 (RV) ± 3.7% 41% 39% 20%
Emerson College October 6–7, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 38% 13%
Emerson College September 12–13, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 38% 14%
Echelon Insights August 31 – September 7, 2022 831 (LV) ± 4.3% 46% 40% 14%
Ron Desantis vs. Joe Biden vs. Cornel West
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Ron
Desantis
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Cornel
West
Green 		Other /
Undecided
Suffolk University July 9–12, 2023 500 (RV) ± 4.4% 39% 37% 2% 22%
Mike Pence vs. Joe Biden
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Mike
Pence
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Other /
Undecided
Ohio Northern University October 16–19, 2023 668 (RV) ± 3.8% 38% 38% 24%[f]
Ohio Northern University July 17–26, 2023 675 (RV) ± 3.7% 37% 38% 25%
Tim Scott vs. Joe Biden
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Tim
Scott
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Other /
Undecided
Ohio Northern University July 17–26, 2023 675 (RV) ± 3.7% 38% 39% 23%
Generic Republican vs. Joe Biden
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Generic
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Other /
Undecided
Causeway Solutions May 19–27, 2023 1,639 (RV) ± 2.5% 45% 33% 22%

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
Cook Political Report[3] Solid R December 19, 2023
Inside Elections[4] Likely R April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[5] Likely R June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[6] Likely R December 14, 2023
CNalysis[7] Likely R December 30, 2023
CNN[8] Solid R January 14, 2024

See also

Notes

  1. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ Some Other Candidate at 5%; Undecided at 10%
  3. ^ Some Other Candidate at 2%; Undecided at 10%
  4. ^ Some Other Candidate at 8%; Undecided at 22%
  5. ^ Some Other Candidate at 5%; Undecided at 16%
  6. ^ Some Other Candidate at 8%; Undecided at 16%
Partisan clients
  1. ^ Poll conducted for the John Bolton Super PAC

References

  1. ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
  2. ^ Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC.
  3. ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  4. ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  5. ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  6. ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  7. ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  8. ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
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