The following discussion is an archived debate of the proposed deletion of the article below. Please do not modify it. Subsequent comments should be made on the appropriate discussion page (such as the article's talk page or in a deletion review). No further edits should be made to this page.

The result was delete. After weighing all contributions and rationales carefully, it is my estimation that there are good editors citing relevant wikipedia policy on both sides of the debate. However, I believe that those making an argument for deleting (which include those wishing to merge or redirect, which are both, in that sense, not wanting this separate list) the article outweigh those wishing to keep. Therefore, delete is the outcome. In my cursory review of other articles here, including Papal conclave, 2013 and a random selection of the articles of the persons/cardinals listed here, it seems there isn't anything that needs to be merged, per se, but someone with interest in this topic (I have Zero) could update those articles to include significantly referenced material about the speculation each was involved in, if appropriate. Keeper | 76 16:16, 20 March 2013 (UTC)[reply]

List of papabili in the 2013 papal conclave[edit]

List of papabili in the 2013 papal conclave (edit | talk | history | protect | delete | links | watch | logs | views) – (View log · Stats)
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I think there is little justification for a separate list of papabili. The usefullness of such a list is extremely limited. Actually, media may discuss about the chances or merits of virtually all cardinal-electors and possibly even some non-electors or even non-cardinals. When we look in the past, we'll quickly recognize that almost in every conclave in the last 500 years over a half of the electors were considered papabili by external observers and the elect was always among them (see Ludwig von Pastor, History of the Popes, vol. 1-40, passim). But this not make sense for creation a separate article, esp. in the form of the table, with little comments. I think that this topic should be included in the article papal conclave, 2013, but without giving it too much weight. It should focus only on those who are reported as supported by some groups of electors or as having particlarly strong position among electors, not all those merely discussed by media. This may refer to Turkson and Scola, who actually are widely discussed in media and there are rumors that Scola is a favourite of Benedict XVI. Currently, this is simply a list of media-speculations, often based on wishful thinking, not on the information about real views of the cardinal-electors. CarlosPn (talk) 19:09, 5 March 2013 (UTC)[reply]

Note: This debate has been included in the list of Christianity-related deletion discussions. • Gene93k (talk) 23:47, 5 March 2013 (UTC)[reply]
Note: This debate has been included in the list of Lists of people-related deletion discussions. • Gene93k (talk) 23:47, 5 March 2013 (UTC)[reply]
  • (Posted before BDD's 20:00, 13 March 2013[2] position change. -- Jreferee (talk) 11:26, 15 March 2013 (UTC)) I generally agree with this. As I noted on the article's talk page, one candidate is listed solely because one reporter wrote, "our thinking is that any Italian between 65-75 in the curia or a major diocese has a fair shot." Frankly, I suspect that if any meaningful standard is applied the list will be pared down so much that the only practical choice will be to merge the information into the longer article.Arnold Rothstein1921 (talk) 02:56, 6 March 2013 (UTC)[reply]
  • (Posted before BDD's 20:00, 13 March 2013 position change. -- Jreferee (talk) 11:26, 15 March 2013 (UTC)) But this is what I really propose - to delete the list, but incorporate the useful information to the main article. I do not propose the censorship on that topic. Basing on the press reports from Italy, actually only Scola, Sandri, Scherer and perhaps Turkson were reported as those who can count on support of certain groups of electors. All the other are media-speculations, not even about the real chances (I mean, what support could he received, how many votes, who could vote for him etc.), but simply about whether this or another cardinal has a qualities or what arguments may be put forward in his favor CarlosPn (talk) 08:24, 6 March 2013 (UTC)[reply]
  • Actually, I'm thinking the opposite. Given that eight years have passed since the 2005 papal conclave, Wikipedia could have a great List of papabili in the 2005 papal conclave since the scholars will have had a chance to analyze and summarize all those newspaper reports about the 2005 papal conclave and have the benefit of cardinal's post-pope-voting writing on the 2005 topic. The lack of a Wikipedia article on List of papabili in the 2005 papal conclave shows a lack of interest in the topic, meaning that the interest in "List of papabili in the 2013 papal conclave might be short lived like that of the 2005 list so that the present 2013 papal conclave papabili views may be more along the lines of WP:NOT#NEWS. Of course, this AfD has a much wider attendance than the AfD for List of papabili in the 2005 papal conclave, so "outcome" might not a viable view. So far, a viable delete position is Wikipedia:Too soon: While the 2013 papabili list topic might arguably merit an article, it is simply too close in time to the 2013 papal conclave to determine who was papabili since the secondary scholarly sources have not yet had a chance to evaluate the writings about the 2013 papal conclave and, without the secondary scholarly sources, it is too speculative for Wikipedia editors to determine who should added to the Wikipedia list. -- Jreferee (talk) 11:21, 15 March 2013 (UTC)[reply]
The oddsmakers are fun, but I think they're not a very good tool to measure probabilities. If you add up all the probabilities implied in the Business Insider article alone, you'd have to expect 1.5 Popes to be elected. Oddsmakers clean up by putting odds of 15:1 on outcomes that they really think have negligible chances of occurring.Arnold Rothstein1921 (talk) 04:00, 6 March 2013 (UTC)[reply]
Bookmakers are no real sources that enable us to appreciate real chances of the candidates. The using of this kind of "sources" makes this article useless - it's nothing more than trivia CarlosPn (talk) 08:24, 6 March 2013 (UTC)[reply]
No one is "using this kind of 'sources'" in the article, so please let's not be intellectually dishonest. The editor was making the point that the betting markets provide some evidence that these candidates are seen as viable. -Rrius (talk) 12:19, 6 March 2013 (UTC)[reply]
  1. The list is correct. (That means, all cardinals listed are indeed "papabile").
  2. The list is still missing someone.
  3. The list includes a cardinal which is not pababile.
The problem is that obviously, there is no definition for someone being papabile, and thus there are no general inclusion or exclusion criteria for this list. Therefore, it is just an subjective, arbitrary listing without any objective guidelines,. As such, it is inherently unmaintainable and violates WP:V as an article that is no verifiable. --FoxyOrange (talk) 12:12, 6 March 2013 (UTC)[reply]
My explanation on why I think the article should be deleted does make sense; here comes the crucial part in WP:V: All information on Wikipedia must be verifiable. It may be correct or incorrect, but there must be the possibility to check. To my knowledge, there is no way (in the sense of a procedure widely considered to be correct) to say whether a cardinal should be included in this list or not. Also, in my opinion it indeed fails WP:CRYSTAL (purely speculative, as the term papabile is missing a definition) and WP:OR (as the list has been collected by Wikipedia editors from a vast number of different sources, none of which displays a similar selection). --FoxyOrange (talk) 12:30, 6 March 2013 (UTC)[reply]

The list is now up to 28, and with additions from the Allen series I mentioned on the talk page the list will reach the mid-thirties. I think that one problem we have here is that we're trying to apply an Italian slang term. If the article is not deleted, I think "Papabili" should just be a redirect, and the title of the article should be something like "2013 Candidates for the Papacy," and the article should make it clear that the sources state each person named has support within the Conclave.Arnold Rothstein1921 (talk) 12:50, 6 March 2013 (UTC)[reply]

Of course, the last conclave before that was well before Wikipedia was so much as an idea. It's conceivable that someone could trawl sources from then, however, and create a List of papabili in the 1978 papal conclave. It does seem such a primary element of a papal conclave would meet WP:GNG. --BDD (talk) 06:19, 10 March 2013 (UTC)[reply]

Well what utter crap! I'm a reader of Wikipedia and I found myself at this article because I wanted to know about the likely candidates, and a useful article I found it. And then I noticed the box at the top of the article about how some people want it deleted. Well I don't care whether it meets whatever "core policies" you're talking about, but I do care whether it provides me with information I need. And it does, so cut the crap about deleting it. — Preceding unsigned comment added by 141.6.11.21 (talk) 19:32, 12 March 2013 (UTC)[reply]


Relisted to generate a more thorough discussion so a clearer consensus may be reached.
Please add new comments below this notice. Thanks, TBrandley (review) 23:40, 12 March 2013 (UTC)[reply]

(Updated note per sensible comments from Robofish) Stalwart111 00:58, 13 March 2013 (UTC)[reply]
That would include all 115 cardinals eligible to vote plus the two who have abstained (one sick, one withdrawal - very unlikely, but still theoretically possible) and a large number of senior clerics who are not cardinals but who could (theoretically) be elected - archbishops and the like (some reportedly received votes at various 20th century conclaves, just not enough to be elected). And that's just the people you would have to put on such a list. I'm pretty sure, technically, any ordained Catholic (someone feel free to refresh my memory of the various rules from the relevant council) would be eligible. Whether or not someone is papabile is entirely subjective. This is not a list of some or all candidates, this is a list of people that some people think might have a better chance than others of being elected. Stalwart111 03:11, 13 March 2013 (UTC)[reply]
In fact, any male baptised Catholic can be elected, which would be a fairly long list! Neljack (talk) 05:24, 13 March 2013 (UTC)[reply]
I thought that might have been the case but couldn't recall. But it has to be a bloke, right? So with about a billion Catholics, half of them male (give or take), this list is about 499,999,972 people short? Stalwart111 06:06, 13 March 2013 (UTC)[reply]
Indeed. Stalwart111, you brought forth a valid argument. When Benedict XVI resigned, a huge media buzz ensued over who might be the next pope. Essentially, this is why there is this long list of 30+ names of cardinals considered "papabile". But from today's point of view, most of them were only mentioned in passing, without any in-depth analysis or continued coverage. When the start of the conclave drew nearer, the general media consensus seemed to have narrowed down so that now it would be called a huge surprise if the next pope would be neither Italian nor Latin American. For example, Der Spiegel from my native Germany only identifies Scherrer and Scola as serious contenders. The Associated Press quotes French cardinal Vingt-Trois that there were only "half a dozen possible candidates". Therefore, it comes to mind that because of the fuzzy definition of the term papabile, an edit war (or at least a heated discussion) might be ahead about whether the person eventually elected pope had been papabile in the first place at all. Having this long list won't help there, either, as such a question must be elaborated in prose. And we already have a place for this. --FoxyOrange (talk) 08:51, 13 March 2013 (UTC)[reply]
Yes. Bearian (talk) 12:27, 14 March 2013 (UTC)[reply]
Ha ha. Well, it was worth asking. Stalwart111 12:38, 14 March 2013 (UTC)[reply]
METHOD: Two categories of papabili in the merged version. THE EXPERTS, known as Vaticanists or other suitable experts. THE MEDIA, the three main news media outlets measured by biggest market share or readership!
I) EXPERTS that should be for example John L. Allen, Jr., maybe two of the most respected Italian vaticanisti Sandro Magister, also here and Andrea Tornielli
II) THE MEDIA that would be a combination of all the papabili names from the three main/ biggest media outlets. There has to be some limit restrictions.
If this does not work, nothing will and I'll go change to delete!
Observe that List of papabili in the 2005 papal conclave does not exist anymore and therefore conclusions should be drawn --JamboQueen (talk) 16:16, 14 March 2013 (UTC)[reply]
And it's been added back while I was typing.Arnold Rothstein1921 (talk) 21:18, 14 March 2013 (UTC)[reply]
Yes I corrected it and I'm now so fed up with this magic box, so I go for delete.--JamboQueen (talk) 22:37, 14 March 2013 (UTC)[reply]
"Instead, the aim is to identify cardinals whose backgrounds, accomplishments, and personalities guarantee they will at least get a serious look as possible papal material". Well said!. This line of thought could be integrated in the merged version where we melt together the brainwork and cardinals named by Vaticanists and with the quite uniform lists of names provided by Mass media. Combine the names mentioned by people like this with a mention of the total average of papal candidates presented in the media. In the end we can see that in this instance both EXPERT and MEDIA opinions correlated or where interdependent. Everyone walked on the ice of speculation. I just think the Vaticanists took the more serious look! --JamboQueen (talk) 19:07, 15 March 2013 (UTC)[reply]
You've both basically hit the nail on the head (in a round-about kind of way) - this is really just a POV-fork with some synthed-together sources that happen to suit that particular point of view - that in the opinion of one or two people, x person is papabile. In some cases, the sources aren't even that specific, they just say, person x might have some support or person y fits the criteria. Papabili were traditionally those seen by Vatican-watchers as having strong social/political/factional support among fellow cardinals prior to conclave, not just the random speculation of news outlets (in whatever historical form). The problem with this list remains that there are an equal number of sources that dispute the claims in the sources we do cite - that's the nature of unverified, personal and non-expert opinion. If we added people to the list on the basis of the sources we have and then removed them from the list on the basis of equally-speculative counter-conjecture from equally-reliable sources, then we'd have a list of only half-a-dozen people - which is exactly what we already have at Papal conclave, 2013#Papabili. Stalwart111 22:50, 15 March 2013 (UTC)[reply]
Sources external to Wikipedia having POV does not make the Wikipedia list itself POV. Regarding the above quote, John L. Allen Jr.'s expert opinion shows what sources Wikipedia should use for the lists. The first limit on Wikipedia's list criterial sould be to limit the reliable sources used in the article to reliable sources that look at cardinals backgrounds, accomplishments, and personalities relative to their possible papal material rather than reliable sources that merely "predict" who will become the next pope. The second Wikipedia's list criteria should be to require multiple sources for a given entry, not just one, and there should be some sort of geographic element (e.g. sources in a few of Italy, France, United States, South America, etc. in general agreement). The point of this list is to capture a general sense of who people around the world thought had a reasonable chance of being elected pope in 2013. That is a reasonable purpose and it can be done. Maybe it cannot be done now so soon after the election, but with the passage of time scholars will evaluate the election to increase the amount and reliability of the views on the topic and Wikipedians can use that in the list article. On the other hand, we have prose at Papal_conclave,_2013#Papabili so maybe it can be done now with existing reliable sources. Since the list can go into details that a string of names at Papal_conclave,_2013#Papabili does not provide, it makes sense to have a list to present information that supplements the article's prose content. -- Jreferee (talk) 14:17, 16 March 2013 (UTC)[reply]
Regarding POV - my point was more that there are two distinct views on each papabili, broadly; electable/not electable. My concern is that we're using only those sources that make any suggestion that a person was electable and not any of the sources (many from commentators more "expert" than the ones we cite) that suggest otherwise. So in each case, we're only reporting on one side of each argument. There might be one or two sources suggesting a candidate is electable but nine or ten suggesting otherwise. Yet that person would appear in our list because the one or two sources are given undue weight against the nine or ten (in fact the latter are ignored all together). As for the substantive part of your comment - very sensible, I think. I still think such a criteria would leave us with a list of half-a-dozen or so, but if this is going to be kept we need a far better list inclusion criteria. Stalwart111 21:46, 16 March 2013 (UTC)[reply]
In general delete per Wikipedia:Articles for deletion/List of papabili in the 2005 papal conclave and more generally per the principal that Wikipedia is not a source for News. Papabile articles are interesting maybe during the conclave, but they are not of permanent historic value. This is especially shown by the sneaking in of more pro-Bergoglio sources after the fact, but failure to put in more-pro-other candidates sources after the fact, creating confirmation bias in the article.John Pack Lambert (talk) 02:15, 16 March 2013 (UTC)[reply]
Adding (extra) sources for information that were already there, and for that matter referenced is not confirmation bias. It'd only be confirmation bias if he wasn't mentioned before and we suddenly try and fit him in somehow now that he's won. KTC (talk) 08:08, 16 March 2013 (UTC)[reply]
(Everything would not be deleted- the core would be kept)
-THIS IS HOW WE CAN DO IT.
>The Vaticanists
Card. Timothy M. Dolan - Sandro Magister here, here
Card. Angelo Scola mentioned first by Sandro Magister here and also by Andrea Tornielli here. Another contributer has been Vatican affairs analyst Gerard O'Connell. The following are references for O'Connell as a well respected Vatican analyst, here, here and here
Card. Odilo Pedro Scherer mentioned here. Andrea Tornielli says some real curial heavyweights are pushing Brazil’s Cardinal Scherer. This is actually a papal candidacy that has been brewing for a long time — I never hear Scherer’s name being mentioned by the general Catholic public, but I have heard it mentioned by Vaticanisti for years. Took it from here
>Mentioned by most big Media (In order of appearance)
Peter Turkson
Marc Ouellet
Christoph Schönborn
Angelo Scola
Gianfranco Ravasi
Luis Antonio Tagle
All of whom the media listed as "papabili" where extensively written and analyzed by John L. Allen, Jr. in his own probable candidates list here. Some papal candidates where obvious (position in church and notability) put some where first point out and examined more closely by Vaticanists. Maybe Cardinal Scherer was a case in point who then subsequently was launched also in the mass media as Papabile--JamboQueen (talk) 11:27, 18 March 2013 (UTC)[reply]
-The next Pope will almost certainly be someone you have never heard of. That is the only prediction one can make with any confidence.Daily Mail
-Obviously, the journalistic ideal is to back up every assertion by citing named sources. The laugh was because we know conclave coverage always falls well short of that ideal.National Catholic Reporter
-Pgarret (talk) 18:19, 18 March 2013 (UTC)[reply]
So far these points have been cited as relevant :
FOR-KEEP
WP:GNG -meets criteria for a stand-alone article or stand-alone list.
FOR-DELETE
WP:CRYSTAL -Wikipedia is not a collection of unverifiable speculation.
WP:OR -The term "original research" (OR) is used on Wikipedia to refer to material—such as facts, allegations, and ideas—for which no reliable, published sources exist
WP:V - means that people reading and editing the encyclopedia can check that the information comes from a reliable source. Where available, academic and peer-reviewed publications are usually the most reliable sources, such as in history, medicine, and science.
WP:COMPREHENSIVE -Wikipedia is, first and foremost, an encyclopedia, and as such, its primary goal is to be a fully comprehensive and informative reference work;
WP:FRINGE -A theory that is not broadly supported by scholarship in its field must not be given undue weight in an article
WP:NOTGOSSIP -Scandal mongering, promoting things "heard through the grapevine" or gossiping.
WP:NOTOPINION -Opinion pieces, although some topics, particularly those concerning current affairs and politics, may stir passions and tempt people to "climb soapboxes".
WP:NEWSORG -The reporting of rumors has a limited encyclopedic value, although in some instances verifiable information about rumors may be appropriate.
WP:YESPOV -Avoid stating opinions as facts
WP:RNPOV -Wikipedia articles on history and religion draw from a religion's sacred texts as well as from modern archaeological, historical, and scientific sources.
WP:WEIGHT -Neutrality requires that each article or other page in the mainspace fairly represents all significant viewpoints that have been published by reliable sources, in proportion to the prominence of each viewpoint in the published, reliable sources. For example, discussion of isolated events, criticisms, or news reports about a subject may be verifiable and impartial, but still disproportionate to their overall significance to the article topic. This is a concern especially in relation to recent events that may be in the news.
--Pgarret (talk) 18:59, 18 March 2013 (UTC)[reply]
Maybe just some nitty-gritty amendments to this list?:
KEEPERS
WP:SIGCOV: Significant coverage means that sources address the subject directly in detail, so no original research is needed to extract the content..
WP:RS: Can be established in this article and is verifiable WP:V
DELETERS
WP:CONTINUEDCOVERAGE : The duration of coverage is a strong indicator of whether an event has passing or lasting significance
WP:DIVERSE: Sources that simply mirror or tend to follow other sources, or are under common control with other sources, are usually discounted.
WP:SYN :Synthesis of published material that advances a position. Do not combine material from multiple sources to reach or imply a conclusion not explicitly stated by any of the sources.
WP:SYNTHESIS: If Jones did not consult the original sources, this would be contrary to the practice recommended in the Harvard Writing with Sources manual, which requires citation of the source actually consulted.
WP:LC: The list is unlimited and/or unmaintainable, The list is unencyclopaedic, i.e. it would not be expected to be included in an encyclopaedia, Determining membership of the list involves original research or synthesis of ideas.
Good luck! --JamboQueen (talk) 21:58, 18 March 2013 (UTC)[reply]
Ha! After 70,000+ bytes of discussion and debate, I reckon that's the best analogy yet. Bravo! Stalwart111 10:41, 20 March 2013 (UTC)[reply]
The above discussion is preserved as an archive of the debate. Please do not modify it. Subsequent comments should be made on the appropriate discussion page (such as the article's talk page or in a deletion review). No further edits should be made to this page.