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Is section "The Verdict for 2008" really encyclopedic?198.183.6.117 (talk) 21:55, 29 October 2008 (UTC)
The two sections are more or less duplicates of each other.
One section seems to more or less be just a copy of http://www.gazette.net/stories/061308/policol182839_32362.shtml or a slightly newer version of that article (one has seven keys against, one has eight)--right down to the odd use of unicode fraction slash in one item.198.183.6.117 (talk) 22:03, 29 October 2008 (UTC)
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If we're going to use Megan McArdle's 2011 article as a counter to Lichtman's model being accurate, we probably want someone who understands the scoring system. From McArdle's article (italics in original):
Obama wins, bringing his total to nine keys, three more than needed to win reelection. I'd say FDR was pretty charismatic, so Hoover loses this one, bringing his total to six keys, apparently just enough to secure his re-election.
She is counting the number of true statements, not the number of false statements as described in this Wikipedia entry. The correct comparison should be three false statements (plus one "undecided" from Lichtman) for Obama versus seven false statements for Hoover. The model then correctly predicted Obama's re-election and Hoover's loss to FDR. 64.125.71.178 (talk) 18:09, 6 May 2020 (UTC)
Assertion by critics that his system cannot predict final vote share is irrelevant. That is not what his system claims to achieve. It's a simple win/lose model. Why include this? In fact that whole section needs to go. Hanoi Road (talk) 18:31, 27 September 2020 (UTC)
The keys should not be connected to current elections, since that is more a political discussion, than objective infomation. For example key number 12: "Incumbent (party) charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. False." But many people, especially his supporters, would call that true. See the many large rallies, where masses aplaud him. Whatever your personal taste, this is clearly not an objective false. So the keys should not be connected to an actual election. Or in a way that tells this is more opinion like, as in the section about the 2020 election. What Lichtman predicts for this election, is also said there. CorCorCor (talk) 22:29, 20 October 2020 (UTC)
Agreed and removed. If it was part of a series showing every election or notable ones then it would make sense Slywriter (talk) 00:27, 21 October 2020 (UTC)
Is there a mistake in the Track record section? Why is Challenger not being charismatic false when Obama challenged Mccain, but also false when Obama ran for reelection as an incumbent? Shouldnt Obama have been considered charismatic as an incumbent if he was charismatic as a challenger? Wikiman5676 (talk) 17:59, 1 November 2020 (UTC)
Kurzon (talk) 18:21, 1 November 2020 (UTC)
Should Al Gore and Donald Trump have notes on the chart that explain Keys were right about Gore winning popular vote and wrong about Trump winning? Slywriter (talk) 00:18, 2 November 2020 (UTC)
@Wikiman5676: I referred to this paper by Allan Lichtman for the 2012 stats. He writes: "Obama has not regained the magic of his 2008 campaign, and falls short of gaining the Incumbent Charisma/Hero Key 12." It turns out that "charisma" in this context does not refer to a natural personality trait, but performance. Kurzon (talk) 03:35, 2 November 2020 (UTC)
The article has morphed from being about the book to a theory. As a result, the info box reflects a book article but the prose has zero remaining references to the book beyond the bibliography. Slywriter (talk) 15:12, 20 November 2020 (UTC)
Originally, this article had the line "In 2000, Lichtman predicted that Al Gore would win the popular vote and therefore become President". I changed it to "In 2000, Lichtman predicted that Al Gore would become President". I read Lichtman's original papers from 1999 and 2000 (links in the Bibliography) and he made no nuance about the popular vote, he simply predicted that Gore would become President. He blamed Gore's loss on improper ballot counting in Florida. That was a variable his model does not account for, and perhaps it cannot for it. His error is understandable but it's still an error. Kurzon (talk) 20:17, 12 December 2020 (UTC)
@Z1720: I wanted to get back to you about the comment you made in the FAC review for this article.
The primary source for this article was Lichtman's book, Predicting the Next President. I also added a few journal articles by Licthman, so this skews the number too. I don't think this is unreasonable because this theory is all Lichtman's, and few other researchers have expanded upon it. I deleted the Criticism section entirely. It seems having no section is better than having a short one, which I think is not a rational way of judging an article. Kurzon (talk) 17:13, 25 January 2021 (UTC)
@Z1720: Yeah whatever. This article is fine as it is since you haven't pointed out any major problems, just minor quibbles with references. Kurzon (talk) 17:34, 29 January 2021 (UTC)
Hi, I edited the bit about counting how many statements are false to a logically equivalent version about counting how many statements are true. IMO, this is substantially easier to understand and apply -- one normally counts true statements, not false statements; counting false statements requires some mental inversion. My edit was reverted without explanation. Is there some reason for this? I think we should use the clearer true statements version. Thanks! Sniffnoy (talk) 17:51, 23 March 2021 (UTC)
That would feel redundant. Kurzon (talk) 08:36, 1 April 2021 (UTC)
@Sniffjoy: Eh, whatever, I'm not going to start an edit war over this crap. I've been down this rabbit hole before. Kurzon (talk) 18:54, 5 April 2021 (UTC)
@Sniffjoy: For what it's worth, here is an excerpt from Allan Lichtman's book Predicting the Next President. This is how he writes it, I just went with that. Kurzon (talk) 15:09, 7 April 2021 (UTC)
"The keys are thirteen diagnostic questions that are stated as propositions favoring reelection of the incumbent party. When five or fewer of these propositions are false, or turned against the party holding the White House, that party wins another term in office. When six or more are false, the challenging party wins."
Kurzon (talk) 15:09, 7 April 2021 (UTC)
@Sniffjoy: All you've done is add an extra redundant line of information that readers are going to have to mentally sort out. Kurzon (talk) 22:17, 24 October 2021 (UTC)
The reader has to choose whether the focus on True Keys or False Keys. You're therefore providing information that he is forced to filter out, and for no added benefit. Kurzon (talk) 08:34, 25 October 2021 (UTC)
@Sniffjoy: Take it to arbitration. You've added nothing of worth to this article. Kurzon (talk) 04:29, 22 November 2021 (UTC)
The following Wikimedia Commons file used on this page or its Wikidata item has been nominated for speedy deletion:
You can see the reason for deletion at the file description page linked above. —Community Tech bot (talk) 20:23, 7 October 2021 (UTC)
@Trajan1: I see you attempted to list all the retroactive predictions that Allan Lichtman and Keilis-Borok made to develop their prediction model. I deleted it because it was rather messy. If it interests you, I started a similar table in my Sandbox: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/User:Kurzon/sandbox#Keys_to_the_White_House. If you really want to go through with this, I suggest you start with my table as a template since you seem to struggle with making tables.
I will point out that Lichtman didn't really predict the pre-1980 elections, rather he used the data from those elections to develop his prediction model. Once he had a model that retroactively predicted past elections, he used it to predict future ones. Kurzon (talk) 20:31, 20 June 2022 (UTC)
No need to be so apologetic, you didn't break anything (permanently). I thought of including the retrospective table as part of an in-depth explanation into the mathematics behind the Keys. In the end, I decided it was not really useful. Are you better at maths than you are at coding? Perhaps you can read Lichtman's original paper and make sense of it. (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC349231/) Kurzon (talk) 12:20, 24 July 2022 (UTC)
According to Lichtman's system, Biden has a 2024 Party Mandate. The Democrats had more House seats after 2022 than they did in 2018, and a net gain since 2020. So why does the chart list this key as "false"? WittgensteinsKey (talk) 19:26, 4 April 2024 (UTC)
Allen Lichtman has yet to give a prediction on the 2024 general election outright and has only say that he leans towards Biden at a given point earlier in 2024.
His prediction for the 2024 election should be placed as to be determined rather than for one candidate or another. 2600:1700:4870:C900:6DA0:E707:FD92:5A4D (talk) 05:15, 21 April 2024 (UTC)