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PNAS article: A call for an independent inquiry into the origin of the SARS-CoV-2 virus May 19, 2022

Attached is the important article "A call for an independent inquiry into the origin of the SARS-CoV-2 virus" that was recently published in PNAS by Jeffry Sachs and Neil L. Harrison. We should discuss and include it. There is also an additional newspaper article "Did US Biotechnology Help to Create COVID-19? "from May 27 that adds various points. These articles are an excellent summary of the current discussion.--Empiricus (talk) 16:23, 10 June 2022 (UTC)

Just an opinion piece. We have (and would need) RS for this topic area. Alexbrn (talk) 16:24, 10 June 2022 (UTC)
Sure, but it's an important opinion. The origin question is ultimately not a scientific problem alone, but a huge political and ethical problem. As for the current scientific consensus "more likly" - this explicitly concerns One Health research. Which is largely unregulated and where is little interest in clarification itself - so a carefull investigation is important. This is a socio-political requirement.--Empiricus (talk) 16:37, 10 June 2022 (UTC)
Sure, but it's an important opinion ← If so, it will be surely be treated in reliable, peer-reviewed secondary literature. But for our current purposes (editing an encyclopedia), it's useless. Alexbrn (talk) 16:41, 10 June 2022 (UTC)
It is not only an simple opinion, but a deeper reflection of the current discussion and the original circumstances (the science-political contexts) and possibilities to clarify them. And because published in PNAS a relevant scientific voice.--Empiricus (talk) 16:52, 10 June 2022 (UTC)
Yeah, but we need reliable sources. An opinion piece is just that. It might be completely wrong for all you know. This is kind of basic. Wikipedia content is based on secondary sources, and for anything biomedical WP:MEDRS is needed. Alexbrn (talk) 17:06, 10 June 2022 (UTC)
Then we need to change all content based on the famous and interest-related Lancet article from March 2020 - the Lancet article was also just an opinion (and no reliable sources) and nothing more.--Empiricus (talk) 17:19, 10 June 2022 (UTC)
The Andersen et al. article from 2020 is actually cited by literally 1000s of other reliable sources (including plenty of high-quality, secondary literature on the topic - which in fact suggests we should similarly cite it as it obviously contains important information); so individual Wikipedia editor opinion (which is entirely irrelevant, even more than that of random opinion pieces elsewhere) is a poor reason to dismiss it. Even more so when the opinion in question is that it is an opinion piece, and the reason for dismissing it is another opinion piece. RandomCanadian (talk / contribs) 18:29, 10 June 2022 (UTC)
There is no scientific evidence (episteme) on the origin question until today - in a strict scientific sense - all statements / sentences, even from reliable sources - are opinions (doxa). Opinions cannot be transformed (by many citations) - without research - into evidence-based knowledge. Jeffry Sachs is not just any voice here, Sachs is chairman of the Lancet Covid-19 Commission. PNAS is the most cited reliable, pre-viewed multi-scientific publication worldwide. Why should this not be citable ? Empiricus (talk) 19:12, 10 June 2022 (UTC)
We don't care whether in a strict epistemic sense all statements, even from reliable sources, are opinions. Wikipedia is concerned with verifiability, not truth. If we lived in Galileo's time, we would have had to report that the Sun went around the Earth, which is what the consensus of existing sources was, even if that is now demonstrably untrue. Neither Sachs nor Harrison (the other author of that letter) are virologists, so in terms of how much weight we need to give to their opinion piece, the answer is "not very much". RandomCanadian (talk / contribs) 19:37, 10 June 2022 (UTC)
Wikipedia is about verifiable true theses, findings not about subjective opinion control (which we have been experiencing here for 2 years). On the question of the origin of the coronavirus, there is systematic cherry-picking by some authors - based on the Lancet opinion of March 2020. There is no open, neutral content on the laboratory hypothesis in the article. Just one example: "Some versions, particularly those alleging alteration of the SARS-CoV-2 genome, are based on speculation,[7] misinformation,[8] or misrepresentations of scientific evidence.[9][10]". But these are just opinions or moral judgments along the lines of - the earth should not revolve around the sun.
As long as there is no proof of the zoonotic origin - such sentences are missinformation for the public opinion. If there would be proof /evidence - then such a sentence would be appropriate - but some authors here see the zoonotic hypothesis implicitly alreadey proven e.g. evident.
You don't have to be a virologist to call for a systematic investigation. The article here stands under the topic COVID 19 - an opinion of a scientist leading the COVID 19 Commission of the leading medical journal should not be relevant - is a private opinion. Empiricus (talk) 20:43, 10 June 2022 (UTC)
On the question of the origin of the coronavirus, there is systematic cherry-picking by some authors - based on the Lancet opinion of March 2020. There is no open, neutral content on the laboratory hypothesis in the article. Yeah, of course, "sources which don't promote the hypothesis I like are biased." This is well within the classic and stereotypical "why Wikipedia cannot claim the Earth is not flat" territory.
Wikipedia is about verifiable true theses Again, wrong. Wikipedia is an encyclopedia, which is a summary of knowledge, which is not quite exactly the same thing as "The Truth". Knowledge as determined by knowledgeable people (a.k.a. subject-matter experts) whose views, findings and opinions can be verified in reliable, high-quality sources. What individual Wikipedians think of the matter is irrelevant (since that is not how we determine neutral point of view); and at worst arrogant (since it comes out bluntly as "I know better than the people who are recognised experts on the matter"). RandomCanadian (talk / contribs) 21:22, 10 June 2022 (UTC)
"There is no open, neutral content on the laboratory hypothesis in the article." – Really ? Who you know this ? What are the WP citerias for neutral in this context ?
“Wikipedia is about verifiable true theses Again, wrong.” You should read the Wikipedia:Verifiability, not truth - carefully: "You are allowed and encouraged to add material that is verifiable and true"; otherwise we produce nonsense. My statements are in accordance with Wikipedia guidelines - yours not !
"What individual Wikipedians think of the matter is irrelevant". I agree - unbalanced opinions (without evidence) supported by individual Wikipedians are indeed the biggest problem - for two years - in the SARS-CoV 2 origin context.
"Findings and opinions can be verified in reliable, high-quality sources". Are the PNAS a reliable, high-quality sources ? Empiricus (talk) 09:35, 11 June 2022 (UTC)
WP:VNT is an essay. Bottom line: we won't be using a letter for exceptional claims. For anything in the field of biomedicine it is an unreliable source. I agree there have been continued problems with what "individual Wikipedians think of the matter" being aired but this "lab leak truther" problem has been getting sorted as the miscreant editors are blocked/banned. Alexbrn (talk) 11:55, 11 June 2022 (UTC)
Thank you for the advice. I don't know what the latest state of discussion is - but the clarification of the original question is not a purely biomedical problem. For example, what does the Chinese government's refusal of transparency have to do with biomedicine? Nothing at all ! It is a big health policy issue. Also, transparent investigations can only be decided by politicians, e.g. Congress. I have already explained this sufficiently in 2021.
"The "Lab Leak Truther" problem has been solved, since the offending editors have been banned" - the same must apply to the "Lab Leak Deniers/Negators" - if we want to meet the neutral point of view, according to the latest state of facts. These are also miscreant editors who undermine the trust of Wikipedia. Empiricus (talk) 12:09, 12 June 2022 (UTC)
WP:RSOPINION is not policy. It is a guideline. Le Marteau (talk) 02:02, 11 June 2022 (UTC)
Meh. I am surprised by the comment above saying that the piece was written by two scientists involved investigations into the origin of COVID-19. One of the authors is Jeffrey Sachs, who is unqualified to talk about such topics as a scholar (he's an economist and a public policy analyst), and even though he indeed chairs the Lancet COVID-19 Commission, he and two other commissioners out of six do not have health policy, much less medical expertise; the other seems to be much more interested in neurology than virology. The only peer-reviewed paper about any aspect of COVID is this one (among the ones he lists on his profile), but there he is mentioned as the last author (even if corresponding) and the paper doesn't speak of the origins, but only of the ion channels, and doesn't even touch on topics which are popular among those advocating the lab leak theory (other COVID papers, also not discussing the origins, are pre-prints).
I've listed the PNAS (but not the Project Syndicate) article in the sources above, just as I did with a few other articles that have appeared in the meantime, but apart from some value of assembling the sources typically used to argue for more investigations into the origins, unless it is widely cited, I don't think it will be ever usable. We needn't be restricted to virologists only, but the people we cite should have compelling evidence of expertise in topics related to the matters discussed in the article. These two guys clearly don't have it. Szmenderowiecki (talk) 11:29, 11 June 2022 (UTC)

It is not the job of Wikipedia to determine the truth or otherwise of the Lab Leak Hypothesis. However, it is the the job of Wikipedia to present notable arguments and opinions for and against the hypothesis. The Lancet investigation is clearly important, and so that should definitely be mentioned in its own right, with a link to [3]

The question of the Sachs and Harrison article is not whether it is true but whether it is notable. I think that Sachs as chair of the Lancet Commission, plus the publication of the article in a major journal obviously makes it very notable. It also summarizes the arguments nicely.

Now, if editors find that the article contains errors and misrepresentations, then, with references, that should be pointed out. But the article obviously needs to be mentioned. Tuntable (talk) 10:20, 13 June 2022 (UTC)

Classic WP:GEVAL fallacy. Wikipedia does not do "for and against", but reflects reliable (not "notable") sources. An opinion piece is not reliable for science. Alexbrn (talk) 10:27, 13 June 2022 (UTC)
And why is this (reference 68) opinion piece reliable for science ? There are even more....pieces ! Empiricus (talk) 14:38, 13 June 2022 (UTC)
That source is not reliable for WP:BMI either, and of little weight. But if a poor source has been used, that is not an argument for making the problem worse. Alexbrn (talk) 14:55, 13 June 2022 (UTC)
WP:GEVAL would perhaps be relevant if the proposed changes give equal validity to create false balance. However, what is being proposed here is exactly the opposite. We can draft an RFC to get wider consensus. ScrumptiousFood (talk) 17:02, 13 June 2022 (UTC)
What is being proposed is that an opinion piece is an "important article" to be included. Elevating unreliable sources in this way to advance a fringe position which queries reliable sources is classic WP:GEVAL. Alexbrn (talk) 18:13, 13 June 2022 (UTC)
Continually creating RFCs to quibble over minor points is a form of tendentious editing. Just keep that in mind. It's a waste of editor time and slows the project down. — Shibbolethink (♔ ♕) 18:46, 13 June 2022 (UTC)

The Lancet is perhaps the most prestigious medical publication. To say that the Lancet Commission is a "Fringe View" is nonsense. It is obviously a major publication. And as chair of the committee the paper clearly is not "Fringe". WP:GEVAL should not be used as an excuse for censorship. Tuntable (talk) 00:34, 14 June 2022 (UTC)

Wrong. Private productions by members of a committee are not the same thing as productions by the committee as a whole. Claims to the contrary are like the opposite of guilt by association ("'truth' by association"?). Of course, claims that insisting on good sourcing and not opinion pieces is censorship makes you look more like you are indeed attempting to advance a non-mainstream position; and looks more like an appeal to emotion than a valid argument as to how an encyclopedic article in a WP:MAINSTREAM encyclopedia should be written. RandomCanadian (talk / contribs) 00:41, 14 June 2022 (UTC)
And even so, the "commission" is mostly a marketing stunt by The Lancet. Nobody "commissioned" them (other than the publisher itself). Its output would not be WP:MEDRS either, unless by WP:MEDASSESS in the usual way. Alexbrn (talk) 06:11, 14 June 2022 (UTC)
The complement to guilt by association is "honor by association". --Hob Gadling (talk) 08:06, 14 June 2022 (UTC)

Implications of the new SAGO Report (WHO) for the article

The Preliminary Report of the Scientific Advisory Group for the Origins of Novel Pathogens (SAGO), 9 June 2022 has some important implications. For example, there is no longer a weighting of the possible origins of the virus. The options are all equally ranked. What is also important is that the laboratory hypothesis is presented under the terms of biosafety and biosecurity. The report is close to Sach's PNAS article in the direction of transparency, neutral point of view and open minded for all possibilities. This is a huge difference to the first report of 2021.

There are a number of points that are important, should be discussed and should be included as a separate chapter in the article. --Empiricus (talk) 19:41, 12 June 2022 (UTC)

For now, as summarised in Science, the zoonotic transfer is considered the most likely scenario, though it has gaps, according to chair of the committee, Marietjie Venter. You are right that this report does not feature any ranking, but it doesn't imply any sort of "equal weight of hypotheses". Same summary by CNN. Szmenderowiecki (talk) 20:36, 12 June 2022 (UTC)
Agreed that "this preliminary report did not rank the likelihood of possibilities when proposing the required further studies to reach that determination" shouldn't be taken to imply they're all actually equally likely, nor that the previous report's conclusions are to be discarded or have (yet) been superseded. Indeed, in the section titled Possibility of introduction of SARS-CoV-2 to the human population through a laboratory incident, they wrote The SAGO recognizes the work of the joint WHO-China team and the findings presented in their report. Presumably, that would include the "extremely unlikely" conclusion. Though I'm not holding my breath they'll get those answers, as later in the section they say: To support biosafety and biosecurity investigations into the introduction of SARS-CoV-2 into the human population through a laboratory incident; the SAGO notes that there would need to be access to and review of the evidence of all laboratory activities (both in vitro and in vivo studies) with coronaviruses including SARS-CoV-2-related viruses or close ancestors and the laboratory’s approach to implementation and improvement of laboratory biosafety and biosecurity. As it is not common practice to publish the institutional implementation of biosafety and biosecurity practices of individual laboratories in peer-reviewed scientific journals, additional information will need to be obtained and reviewed to make conclusive recommendations. Same limitation as any other study, it depends on the cooperation of the WIV, and they appear unlikely to cooperate as long as they feel like they're being targeted. Who knows, maybe that has changed through the shift to SAGO and other world political changes.
From a footnote in that section: It is noted that three members of SAGO (Dr Vladimir Dedkov, Dr Carlos Morel, Professor Yungui Yang) do not agree with the inclusion of further studies evaluating the possibility of introduction of SARS-CoV-2 to the human population through a laboratory incident in this preliminary report due to the fact that from their viewpoint, there is no new scientific evidence to question the conclusion of the WHO-convened global study of origins of SARS-CoV-2: China Part mission report published in March 2021. Out of 27 total members, so not a majority by any means, but I think it's notable they added this specifically as a footnote. Bakkster Man (talk) 19:24, 13 June 2022 (UTC)
And to clarify, I do agree the SAGO report is going to be a notable addition to this article. It's the details on how to word such a section that will prompt some disagreements. Bakkster Man (talk) 19:39, 13 June 2022 (UTC)
3 scientists out of 27? Sure sounds like the consensus of scientists agree that there was no lab leak. 2600:8804:6600:45:DD1:9687:3619:44B8 (talk) 22:24, 13 June 2022 (UTC)
3 out of 27 scientists contributing to a report disagreed with the suggestion of further investigations into it. Any other interpretation of this is at best cloud-chasing. Other scientists writing in peer-reviewed journals have clearly indicated that there is no evidence currently available to support the lab leak allegations even if they haven't yet been proven false. RandomCanadian (talk / contribs) 23:16, 13 June 2022 (UTC)
can we deduce that 24 of 27 scientist are suggesting there needs to be further investigations into it? 2600:8804:6600:45:DD1:9687:3619:44B8 (talk) 23:27, 13 June 2022 (UTC)
The absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. We cannot conclude that, no. — Shibbolethink (♔ ♕) 01:57, 14 June 2022 (UTC)
So you finally concede that a lack evidence for a lab leak does not prove there was no lab leak? 2600:8804:6600:45:DD1:9687:3619:44B8 (talk) 03:42, 14 June 2022 (UTC)
Putting words in people's mouths is not an honest discussion method. --Hob Gadling (talk) 08:09, 14 June 2022 (UTC)
There is not a single piece of evidence for any of the hypotheses so far. What we have are indications of possibilities - e.g. that virus outbreaks in the past were zoonotically caused, also that the virus could also be produced in a laboratory (for e.g. PNAS Articel) - but these are only possibilities. They can be weighted and ranked - but this do not constitute proof or evidence. This is basically also the result of the SAGO report.
Actually, these sentences in the article (and other WP articles) is based on a conflict of interest - the members from China (50%) were not independent - the weighting "extremely unlikely" is/was Chinese state doctrine (everything else is a lie for China): "The WHO-convened Global Study of the Origins of SARS-CoV-2, written by a joint team of Chinese and international scientists and published in March 2021, assessed introduction through a laboratory incident to be "extremely unlikely" and not supported by any available evidence, although the report stated that this possibility could not be wholly ruled out without further evidence." After what we know now, this sentence is implausible, no NPOV - simply obsolete. The circumstances should be better explained.Empiricus (talk) 10:25, 14 June 2022 (UTC)
"There is not a single piece of evidence for any of the hypotheses so far" this appears to be your opinion, as the section of the SAGO report lists many studies investigating this, and several animals in which the virus has been found. You appear to personally have defined this as not evidence. Further, you are conducting original research into this question, determining what you think is Chinese doctrine, and should therefore be discarded. I am sorry but this discussion is no longer based in either reliable sources or WP:PAGs, and therefore is not suitable for this page. It is now more akin to a WP:SOAPBOX of your beliefs of what should and should not be considered likely. That is not the purpose of wikipedia. I and many others will likely reply only when and if this discussion is based in sources, quotes, and PAGs. — Shibbolethink (♔ ♕) 11:51, 14 June 2022 (UTC)
The report mentions over 25 studies - which are still being evaluated by SAGO. From this sentence no evidence can be deduced : "To date, neither the virus progenitors nor the natural/intermediate hosts have been identified. The current available data on the closest related SARS-like viruses and susceptibility of many animal species to SARS-CoV-2 suggest a zoonotic source." SAGO simply speaks of "suggest. For me "suggest" is no evidence - maybe for you ! The fact that there are massive problems regarding the transparency of China is sufficiently documented here in WP and was repeated last week.:Lab leak theory a ‘lie’ cooked up by anti-China forces: FM - Global Times. The purpose of wikipedia is transparency with verified facts. I don't understand when new transparent studies are proposed (for e.g. J. Sachs) - that this end in such a theatre/soapbox for endless discussions -instead of simply inserting a few sentences here. Empiricus (talk) 15:57, 14 June 2022 (UTC)
This seems like a conflation of conclusions and evidence, but understanding the way you've used the terms above helps make your position clearer. Bakkster Man (talk) 17:50, 14 June 2022 (UTC)
No, we can't say for sure that 24/27 are actively in favor. Three of the 27 opposed further studies strongly enough to want it put in a footnote. I think it's most likely that a majority (anywhere between 14-24) are in favor of additional studies, but we don't know for certain how many of the remainder were ambivalent. Bakkster Man (talk) 13:18, 14 June 2022 (UTC)
@Szmenderowiecki: we must be careful not confuse statements from the presser with the positions of the SAGO report itself. Venter's statements do not imply "equal weight of hypotheses", but both she and the SAGO report stress the need for future studies and more data to reach firmer conclusions, and that is a substantial shift from the last WHO report that was mired in controversy. The SAGO report is a review of all studies, including Holmes et al, which it now supersedes, per WP:MEDASSESS, WP:MEDORG and WP:AGEMATTERS. To answer OP, I think the main implication of the SAGO report is that all views on the weighting of hypotheses be attributed to their source, per WP:NPOV, and that should include Holmes et al, which was our best source up till now. Since this SAGO report is "preliminary" and doesn't give any firm conclusions, pending Chinese government cooperation for further studies and data, WP:CRYSTAL may also be a relevant policy, since we can't know what they will find. ScrumptiousFood (talk) 18:10, 14 June 2022 (UTC)
This entire section appears to be original research, and as such, is not a very useful interpretation for inclusion in the article. — Shibbolethink (♔ ♕) 18:47, 13 June 2022 (UTC)
I only read quotes from the report here -with some comments. No sign of original research. There are some important differentiations in the report that are worth to be included in the article.... Empiricus (talk) 20:44, 13 June 2022 (UTC)
Any investigation that suggests that the lab leak is real is, by definition, original research. Unless you copy verbatum, in which case it is copyright infringement.  :( Tuntable (talk) 00:43, 14 June 2022 (UTC)
"there is no longer a weighting of the possible origins of the virus. The options are all equally ranked." The absence of weighing the possibilities does not mean that the options are all equally ranked. To suggest as much is original research. That is one among many examples. — Shibbolethink (♔ ♕) 01:56, 14 June 2022 (UTC)
Can we change this

Some scientists agree that the possibility of a lab leak should be examined as part of ongoing investigations

to this

The possibility of lab leaks is now being considered by the WHO and its advisors to be included as standard elements of the investigations on the origins of pandemics, including periodic monitoring of laboratories' internal research activities regarding risky pathogens

.Forich (talk) 02:09, 15 June 2022 (UTC)
I don't see this in the report (emphasis mine): including periodic monitoring of laboratories' internal research activities regarding risky pathogens. I also don't see that this: possibility of lab leaks is now being considered by the WHO and its advisors to be included as standard elements of the investigations on the origins of pandemics is a new thing. As far as I am aware, for many decades even before the 1967 Marburg virus outbreak, it has been standard practice to consider this possibility. — Shibbolethink (♔ ♕) 13:14, 15 June 2022 (UTC)
I think Forich might be confusing the SAGO report with a different WHO report released on June 8 about developing a global framework for biorisk management [4]. I think it is also due in this page, but maybe not in the way Forich suggests. ScrumptiousFood (talk) 17:19, 16 June 2022 (UTC)
Shibbo its right, the SAGO report is limited to studies on origin, not on the monitoring of research laboratories. I was reading too much between the lines of SAGO's page 14 statement Broad areas to include in a global framework include review of biosafety programme administration, including risk-based assessment of biosafety and biosecurity measures for all pathogens and their associated activities. The global framework should cover pathogen storage and accountability, staff competency and training, as well as guidelines for creating and maintaining necessary facility structures and infrastructure to ensure the integrity of the biocontainment engineering facilities. It does not say periodical nor monitoring. Maybe SAGO including this review of biosafety programme administration is not related to laboratories, or if it is, is the same regulation in place since decades ago as Shibbolethink suggests, I can not tell. Thanks to ScrumptiousFood for bringing up the biorisk report, was not aware of it and will read it. Forich (talk) 04:07, 17 June 2022 (UTC)

Neutral statement: alteration of genome

The current version of the article states: Some versions, particularly those alleging alteration of the SARS-CoV-2 genome, are based on speculation, misinformation, or misrepresentations of scientific evidence.

The problem with this statement is that scientists are currently divided on whether alteration to the SARS-CoV-2 genome, or (more precisely) its immediate progenitor's genome, can be determined without access to laboratory records 1 2 3 4 5.

Baric Graham 2020 (PMID: 32392464) cites Andersen et al (PMID: 32284615) in light of social media speculation about possible laboratory manipulation and deliberate and/or accidental release of SARS-CoV-2. But as Ralph Baric later told to PresaDiretta, "You can engineer a virus without leaving any trace" [1]. After dampening his "smoking gun" comment about the FCS, David Baltimore told to Caltech "You can't distinguish between the two origins from just looking at the sequence" [2]. And more significantly, after a (unapproved) grant request by EHA about coronavirus GoF experiments was leaked in Sep 2021; Jack Nunberg told to The Intercept "Whether that particular study did or didn’t [lead to the pandemic], it certainly could have" [3] and Alexander Kekulé told to German television "My unease about the possibility that it could have been a laboratory accident has increased" [4]. Simon Wain Hobson wrote in the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung about it: "What we do not know - and badly need to know - is whether this proposal was submitted elsewhere, financed and performed." [5].

A neutral statement would reflect the views of these scientists as expressed in these more recent sources, while tempering confidence about facts that scientists can't know without access to key documents at the Wuhan laboratory. The full quote from Baric is "You can engineer a virus without leaving any trace. The answers you are looking for, however, can only be found in the archives of the Wuhan laboratory".

80.107.62.75 (talk) 07:32, 8 February 2022 (UTC)

Yes, this has been a problem for a while, and the main reason the POV tag remains on the Gain of function research page. I would support a rewrite of the sentence using better sources and providing some much needed WP:BALANCE on the issue. LondonIP (talk) 02:01, 13 February 2022 (UTC)
We do not treat blatant minority views as always worthy of inclusion. This is what BALANCE tells us as well.. — Shibbolethink (♔ ♕) 10:42, 15 February 2022 (UTC)
After the DARPA proposal leak, a number of reputed scientists commented extensively on this scenario, so it's an open question, not a minority view. There are quotes from Simon Wain-Hobson and Alexander Kukel are very relevant, and the comments from David Baltimore in Caltech are relevant too. Regardless of all that, the use of the Graham Baric paper to call this speculation is a clear case of OR. The paper introduces Andersen et al as a response to speculation, and doesn't call it that itself, qualifying it as "possible". LondonIP (talk) 01:49, 11 March 2022 (UTC)
Quotes and comments are opinion, and unless they have been subsequently followed by more serious endeavours which were published in scientific journals, they do not hold nearly the same weight. "Speculation" is well-backed up in sources (Despite these massive online speculations, scientific evidence does not support this accusation of laboratory release theory.; The suspicion that SARS-CoV-2 might have a laboratory origin stems from the coincidence that it was first detected in a city that houses a major virological laboratory that studies coronaviruses.) and rather a mild way to refer to it (I've also seen As a conclusion, there is no evidence to support the Mojiang mine origin of SARS-CoV-2 and any of the laboratory leak theories. ... These narratives are not evidence-based scientific conclusions. ... In a time of geopolitical conflicts characterized by hidden agendas, false information and manipulations, it is essential to rely only on scientific and evidence-based conclusions and to avoid opinion-based narratives. RandomCanadian (talk / contribs) 02:09, 11 March 2022 (UTC)
The tone of the statement is obviously POV. None of the citations are scientific published papers, and there are numerous other papers that argue strongly (and with good evidence) that it is a lab leak. It is obviously controversial, and it is not the job of Wikipedia to take sides. It needs to be replaced with a more balanced statement. Tuntable (talk) 08:14, 14 March 2022 (UTC)
Obviously you can't distinguish a crap scientific paper from actual ones. Take a look at WP:NOLABLEAK (from where all of the above is quoted). The "both sides" argument is as utter bollocks here as it would be anywhere else. WP:NPOV does not ever mean that we need to present "both sides" equally. We present them based on what the high-quality sources are saying, and high-quality sources are saying the lab leak is at best "unsupported speculation". You don't like that? Not Wikipedia's problem. RandomCanadian (talk / contribs) 14:20, 14 March 2022 (UTC)
there are numerous other papers that argue strongly (and with good evidence) that it is a lab leak -- Could you provide a single secondary review paper published in a reputable topic-relevant journal and peer reviewed by topic experts which supports this claim? I cannot think of a single one. — Shibbolethink (♔ ♕) 21:22, 14 March 2022 (UTC)
"a number of reputed scientists commented extensively on this scenario, so it's an open question, not a minority view" - By this logic, whether or not bigfoot exists is also an open question. Whether or not aliens have visited earth. Etc. etc. On wikipedia, it is not in line with the WP:PAGs to determine scientific consensus or prevailing scientific view (and the nature of its majority vs minority opinions) via news reports and quotations. We also don't assess what is "an open question" via these methods. WP:MEDASSESS and WP:RS/AC tell us how to assess such things, and it is not via interpretation or summation of a bunch of individual quotations from individual people. — Shibbolethink (♔ ♕) 04:07, 11 March 2022 (UTC)
If there are so many well published papers then it should be easy to find one that actually states
"Some versions, particularly those alleging alteration of the SARS-CoV-2 genome, are based on speculation, misinformation, or misrepresentations of scientific evidence."
The citations for the statement in question are clearly not substantial papers.
I also object to the tone of your comments. Insulting other editors by saying that they are incompetent is completely against Wikipedia etiquette. It reflects much more upon your own attitude than upon those making constructive comments. Tuntable (talk) 22:31, 16 March 2022 (UTC)
You haven't even bothered to check WP:NOLABLEAK, which was clearly linked, have you? Nor go more in depth and look at the sources in their entirety and see what else they have written? Not going to do your job for you. Currently, there are some fictitious and pseudoscientific claims as well as conspiracy theories associated with the Covid‐19 pandemic. Some people have alleged that SARS‐CoV‐2 is of laboratory origin and the result of deliberate genetic manipulation. According to these conspiracy theories, a novel virus is a human‐made biological weapon, not the result of natural evolution and selection. (Rev Med Virol., 2021 Feb 14) is rather unambiguously clear and there is no need for us to take any half-measures regarding this. Stop wasting people's time. RandomCanadian (talk / contribs) 05:12, 17 March 2022 (UTC)
WP:NOLABLEAK is not Wikipolicy, but merely the opinion of some editors. It carries no weight whatsoever.
What we are discussing here is a specific sentence which requires a specific citation, from a reputable source, and that is missing. Therefor the sentence should be removed. Tuntable (talk) 04:00, 18 March 2022 (UTC)
WP:NOLABLEAK also contains an extensive bibliography. If you wish to ignore it, and ignore the sources which are already in the article (despite me bothering to quote them, right here), that is entirely your own problem. I'm done wasting my time. RandomCanadian (talk / contribs) 04:51, 18 March 2022 (UTC)
@Tuntable Hi, where do I say another editor is "incompetent" ? — Shibbolethink (♔ ♕) 22:57, 22 March 2022 (UTC)
There is a difference between speculation and hypothesizing, and Fatbatsat makes a similar point in this related discussion, as does Vosne in this related discussion. Editors oppose the statement for one reason (POV), and the citation of Graham et al on the "speculation" epithet for another (misrepresentation of the authors' view expressed in a Presadiretta interview and their Cell paper). Calling the engineered scenario "speculation" is the POV of one group of scientists (Holmes et al) and we certainly shouldn't be attributing it as that to Graham Baric 2020. It is a blatant misrepresentation of a source that editors have protested for over a year. If we cannot agree on this, we should post a RFC on a noticeboard to group all of these discussions. ScrumptiousFood (talk) 15:36, 3 April 2022 (UTC)
"Editors oppose the statement for one reason (POV)" - please do not continue to speak for the opinions of other editors without specific quotations, per the talk page guidelines. Holmes et al is a peer-reviewed secondary review article published in a well-regarded topic-relevant journal, and thus is the best available source for depicting the view of the scientific community about this question. We do not have higher or equivalent quality sources which contradict Holmes on this. The Baric paper also has the quote which even includes the word "speculation". If you believe it fails verification, you should attempt to gather consensus on that view. We have discussed this many times before (stretching all the way back to March of last year [7] [8] [9]), and the informal consensus was in favor of including this word with this sourcing. We should not escalate every dispute to an RFC, as this is a fundamental component of tendentious editing and indeed, I would caution you against this. Given the substantial amount of discussions we have had on this, and the accompanying sourcing, I would view this as a substantial waste of editor time and effort. On the other hand, if you do escalate this into an RFC, we could get a firm formal consensus on it, and add it to the consensus banner at the top of this page! — Shibbolethink (♔ ♕) 15:40, 3 April 2022 (UTC)
Please WP:FOC and refrain from constantly lecturing editors you disagree with on policies and guidelines. Baric and Graham do not state that alteration of the genome is "speculation", but quote Andersen et al using that epithet, as LondonIP says above. Our article misrepresents Baric's point of view, and the position of his paper with Graham, so it is WP:OR. Holmes et al is indeed a high quality source, but MEDRS is not the relevant sourcing criteria for determining a scientific consensus on this subject, as the original author of WP:MEDRS said long ago. Scientists are divided on this question and a review article giving one POV does not make it a scientific consensus. An RFC will be necessary if we cannot agree on this. ScrumptiousFood (talk) 16:38, 3 April 2022 (UTC)
If MEDRS papers were "not appropriate sourcing for determining a scientific consensus", random scientists getting quoted in newspapers would be even less so. And you're correct that we shouldn't call the engineering scenarios "speculation": most of those scientific papers (reviewed by their peers, and not by newspapers editors) clearly dismiss that as having no evidence and various other terms, including "speculation" but also "conspiracy theory", "rumour", "opinion-based narratives" which are "in a time of geopolitical conflicts characterized by hidden agendas, false information and manipulations"; so on so forth (all cited and quoted here - see, you don't even have to do the hard work of looking for them). If you want to focus on content, you should stop wasting people's time with your clearly tendentious arguments and own up and start looking for sources (like those that have been presented to you, multiple times now) instead of sealioning and ignoring them. RandomCanadian (talk / contribs) 21:09, 3 April 2022 (UTC)
Most everyone using the word "conspiracy" has been proven to be conflicted. (eg Daszak) Newspapers using the word are most usually quoting these same people. I believe the only scenario that has no supporting evidence based in fact is "Bioweapon". 2600:1700:8660:E180:8569:1D3F:A66F:E266 (talk) 00:04, 4 April 2022 (UTC)
I believe the only scenario that has no supporting evidence based in fact is "Bioweapon". Please support your statements with references to reliable sources. Vague pronouncements do not keep us specific or grounded, and thus do not help the discussion approach consensus. — Shibbolethink (♔ ♕) 00:37, 4 April 2022 (UTC)
COVID-19_lab_leak_theory#Deliberate_release 2600:1700:8660:E180:E56B:2EFB:3380:FBFC (talk) 04:42, 4 April 2022 (UTC)
the version proposing the virus may have escaped accidentally is more plausible. Plausibility is not synonymous with supporting evidence. It is very plausible that I will go outside right now and my neighbor will be walking across the way and say hello and wave to me. It has never happened before, but it is certainly plausible. I have no evidence to suggest that this will happen. But it remains plausible. Please support your statements with reliable sources, or take your discussion to a platform where such baseless theorizing and invective is permitted. — Shibbolethink (♔ ♕) 21:32, 4 April 2022 (UTC)
An RFC will be necessary if we cannot agree on this - Do you mean you will start an RFC if everyone here does not agree with your position, or are you open to reconsidering if provided any evidence? Or if you fail to find evidence which supports your position, as you have failed to do thus far?
refrain from constantly lecturing editors you disagree with on policies and guidelines - The only things that should be discussed on this talk page are 1) policies and guidelines (and their application to this article), 2) article content, and 3) source quality, utility, and verifiability. per WP:TALK#TOPIC. It seems, per that guideline, I am on topic.
Holmes et al is indeed a high quality source, but MEDRS is not the relevant sourcing criteria for determining a scientific consensus on this subject - You're right, but WP:SCHOLARSHIP, WP:SOURCETYPES and WP:PARITY are applicable. And as a result, much of the same considerations apply.
a review article giving one POV does not make it a scientific consensus - Review articles, especially when viewed in aggregate, depict the consensus of the scientific community, since they are peer-reviewed and editorially reviewed and themselves discuss the relevant literature in a secondary perspective. WP:SOURCETYPES, WP:RS/AC, WP:SCHOLARSHIP, and WP:PARITY tell us this is the type of source we should use here. And we have several which tell us that "speculation" is an appropriate term to use.
Scientists are divided on this question - Is what you describe here your personal opinion? What high quality peer reviewed secondary source are you using to determine that scientists are divided on this issue? When viewed in aggregate, our WP:BESTSOURCES (as shown in WP:NOLABLEAK) tell us that there is not much disagreement among scientists, and only a minority consider the lab leak theory a likely scenario. Only a very small minority consider there to be any supporting evidence for the theory. — Shibbolethink (♔ ♕) 23:01, 3 April 2022 (UTC)
In a world where Francis Collins is attacking scientists and Kristian Andersen is proposing to delete papers from pre-print servers, it seems very difficult to use WP:BESTSOURCES in a cut and dry fashion. 2600:1700:8660:E180:8569:1D3F:A66F:E266 (talk) 00:26, 4 April 2022 (UTC)
Wikipedia follows, it does not lead. if our sources are wrong, we are wrong as well. This is the essence of "verifiability, not truth" and it is the guideline that prevents us from inserting our POVs and deciding when to trust which sources.
It appears you have disagreement with those policies and guidelines, and you should probably take that to the talk page of those wikipedia-space articles. This is not the place to debate what the policy should be, it is the place to discuss how to apply those policies as they currently exist. — Shibbolethink (♔ ♕) 00:38, 4 April 2022 (UTC)
Let the gaslight burn bright! 2600:1700:8660:E180:E56B:2EFB:3380:FBFC (talk) 04:42, 4 April 2022 (UTC)

"Reversal of stance"

@Le Marteau

1) We follow scholarly sources for matters of science (e.g. epidemiology) (and prefer them for everything else) The AP does not trump the literature.
2) We avoid using news sources for our understanding of scientific papers for this exact reason. See WP:RECENTISM.
3) We have sources and quotations in THIS VERY ARTICLE which describe how the WHO has always thought "more investigation is necessary." They said this exact thing in the first report.

If scholarship said all humans are born with a belly button, and a news report came out this morning saying "This just in! Humans no longer need belly buttons!" then we would wait to change the belly button article until a secondary scholarly review article had been published to that effect. See also WP:PARITY. — Shibbolethink (♔ ♕) 18:41, 19 June 2022 (UTC)

At a minimum, any mention should be attributed, and the attribution should be after a more neutral description of the report rather than ahead of it. Per WP:UNDUE, placing the attributed claim first implies that should be the primary interpretation, rather than one possible interpretation. Particularly since we're talking about a WP:NEWSORG about a scientific topic. Bakkster Man (talk) 13:03, 20 June 2022 (UTC)
Can anyone please look up John Ehrenreich's The Making of a Pandemic: Social, Political, and Psychological Perspectives on Covid-19 (Springer, 2022, ISBN 978-3-031-04964-4 in ebook)? He's not exactly a subject-matter expert, but apparently that book might be relevant for the article as a summary (I've only seen a snippet). Szmenderowiecki (talk) 20:53, 20 June 2022 (UTC)
I don't believe inclusion that the WHO is perceived to have changed course should be handled as a "matter of science" by us. The WHO is advocating increased research into the matter... this is not "scientific information" any more than would news that Bellview Hospital hired twenty new doctors to treat cancer would be...this is more along the lines of a resources and logistics thing. Le Marteau (talk) 21:17, 20 June 2022 (UTC)
There's a bit of a danger in picking any one primary "reaction" as the reaction (especially if it's US News, which is parochial as anything). Maybe better to use a survey of reactions such as this.[13] Alexbrn (talk) 21:27, 20 June 2022 (UTC)
Yeah, presenting it as a reaction is one thing. But the diff in question presented it as the only reaction, and ahead of the rest of the description of the report, presenting it as the de facto interpretation. That's where it becomes problematic. Bakkster Man (talk) 22:14, 20 June 2022 (UTC)
One of the few pieces of fresh information in the report came from Chinese researchers, who responded to a request from SAGO and provided new data on blood samples taken from 40,000 people in Wuhan before the first COVID-19 cases surfaced in December 2019. Although 200 tested positive for antibodies to SARS-CoV-2, those antibodies could not neutralize the virus in a confirmatory test, suggesting these were false positives. A dozen studies from Europe and the United States have offered evidence of SARS-CoV-2 or antibodies in biological or sewage samples taken before December 2019. Independent attempts to validate these studies so far have failed, but Chinese officials have highlighted them to suggest the pandemic originated elsewhere, and SAGO is still reviewing those data. Its report only notes that “the significance of these findings remains unclear.” Should we include info on the status of the analysis of antibodies in pre-Dec 2019 blood samples? 2600:8804:6600:45:D02D:6DB0:9EFD:BC61 (talk) 23:51, 20 June 2022 (UTC)
The Chinese providing blood samples from before December, none of which had neutralizing antibodies, would be reasonable to mention in one of the origins articles (Investigations into the origin of COVID-19 is probably a better location, as the antibody presence doesn't really weigh on a lab origin specifically) as Chinese participation in the investigations is a notable element. The Chinese assertion that this means the origin was outside of China shouldn't be included, not unless SAGO can confirm those studies outside China weren't also false positives (which many have suggested they might be, as none of them used validated test methods to my knowledge). Bakkster Man (talk) 13:30, 21 June 2022 (UTC)
Just as an aside, "Although 200 tested positive for antibodies to SARS-CoV-2, those antibodies could not neutralize the virus in a confirmatory test, suggesting these were false positives" is nonsense. I did my PhD on neutralizing vs non-neutralizing serum and antibody responses, and concluding that these are false positives from that fact alone is ridiculous and unscientific. We would need relative titers, analysis of epitopes, etc. You can't just say "non neutralizing = false positive." There is such a thing as a non-neutralizing but protective polyclonal or monoclonal antibody response. — Shibbolethink (♔ ♕) 17:27, 21 June 2022 (UTC)
Maybe better to use a survey of reactions That works for me. Besides the "WHO did a reversal" reaction, what other reactions do you think should be included? Le Marteau (talk) 06:38, 22 June 2022 (UTC)
I'd start with just summarizing the paper in wikivoice: what the report said about the lab. AP can be one reaction, Science collected more reactions here and called them 'mixed' (also note, they quote the SAGO chair at the press conference “But at this stage, the strongest evidence is still around a zoonotic transmission”, probably notable here as well), and I suspect we can give the attributed Chinese response as well. Bakkster Man (talk) 13:46, 22 June 2022 (UTC)
We have not much literature about the new SAGO report due to its recentness. For now, we should prioritize the statements of the scholars themselves involved in the report, so we should state Venter's summary of that report so far, and the Science article is a brilliant source in that respect. We can also mention, though, that the second report is much different from the first one ("sharp reversal" per AP, "in stark distinction" [of the first one] per Science) in its recommendations. This comes with a caveat, though, as even WHO did not fully accept the first report, i.a. due to the opposition of its chief, so to say that WHO's position reversed isn't entirely accurate, because the initial position was sort of contradictory due to the declarations of WHO's chief. But we can definitely compare reports themselves, which are very different.
We already mention the Chinese reaction ("a lie concocted by anti-China forces for political purposes, which has nothing to do with science"), and they do not oppose the report's reversal itself but any suggestion of the lab leak theory at all, as this would implicate China, so in that respect no need for further emphasis. Szmenderowiecki (talk) 23:11, 23 June 2022 (UTC)

Define DRASTIC earlier

DRASTIC is first mentioned in the "Mojiang copper mine" section and is not described until much later in the "Continuing coverage" section. Can we edit the article so that DRASTIC is described where they are first mentioned? Poppa shark (talk) 23:49, 13 July 2022 (UTC)

Extended-confirmed-protected edit request on 21 July 2022

In July 2022, Nick Paterson, a well-respected scientific writer, changed his mind and now "believes that COVID-19 originated as a leak from the Wuhan Institute of Virology" following the publication of "Viral: The Search for the Origin of COVID-19" by Mat Riddley and Alina Chan.

https://npatterson.substack.com/p/more-regulation-please KeithDud (talk) 13:12, 21 July 2022 (UTC)

 Not done: please provide reliable sources that support the change you want to be made. This needs secondary coverage in reliable sources to demonstrate that it is noteworthy. ScottishFinnishRadish (talk) 13:19, 21 July 2022 (UTC)
And to clarify, no a blog on substack is not a reliable source. WP:SPS. Bakkster Man (talk) 13:46, 21 July 2022 (UTC)

Define the organization DRASTIC earlier



Poppa shark (talk) 16:38, 22 July 2022 (UTC)

References

 Not done: it's not clear what changes you want to be made. Please mention the specific changes in a "change X to Y" format and provide a reliable source if appropriate. Please write your description of the organization DRASTIC that you would want to see included. RFZYNSPY talk 07:18, 23 July 2022 (UTC)
 Done @RFZYNSPY: the request wanted the summary of DRASTIC to be moved to the first mention, rather than the last mention. The reader of the article wouldn't know wtf DRASTIC is since it was both unlinked and not mentioned previously. SWinxy (talk) 21:24, 23 July 2022 (UTC)
Gotcha, I didn't realize a description already existed so I responded but left the request unanswered. Thanks for taking care of this. RFZYNSPY talk 22:11, 23 July 2022 (UTC)
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