The European Parliament election is set to take place in June 2024. This article lists national polls for the EU election as well as EU-wide seat projections and popular vote estimates.

List of polling

There are no pan-European polls for the European elections. However, several organizations calculate the theoretical seat distribution in the European Parliament in advance to the EP election based on national polls in all member states. The table below displays these different projections. The projections prior to 31 January 2020 still include the United Kingdom, which left the EU on that date.[1]

Seats

361 seats are needed for a parliamentary majority

Organisation Release
date 		Area Number of seats The Left S&D Greens/EFA Renew EPP ECR ID NI Others Lead
election.de[2] 7 Feb 2024 EU27 720 42 138 49 78 176 88 94 55 38
Europe Elects for EURACTIV[3] 1 Feb 2024 EU27 720 42 140 51 82 180 80 91 49 5 40
ECFR[4] 23 Jan 2024 EU27 720 44 131 61 86 173 85 98 42 42
Europe Elects for EURACTIV[5] 15 Jan 2024 EU27 720 37 143 50 84 178 80 93 49 6 35
Der Föderalist[6] 8 Jan 2024 EU27 720 33 141 45 86 169 75 89 43 39 28
35 143 47 91 177 85 108 34 34
election.de[7] 9 Jan 2024 EU27 720 41 141 45 80 179 86 95 53 38
Europe Elects[8] 30 Dec 2023 EU27 720 36 142 49 84 179 81 93 50 6 37
POLITICO Europe[9] 11 Dec 2023 EU27 720 33 145 47 87 175 91 91 51 30
Europe Elects[10] 30 Nov 2023 EU27 720 38 141 52 89 175 82 87 52 4 35
KAS[11] 29 Nov 2023 EU27 720 42 143 48 87 171 78 79 41 30 35
POLITICO Europe[12] 9 Nov 2023 EU27 720 38 143 49 91 179 90 85 45 36
Der Föderalist[13] 6 Nov 2023 EU27 720 43 137 43 90 170 78 76 37 45 33
46 138 47 96 178 89 92 34 40
Europe Elects[14] 31 Oct 2023 EU27 720 45 139 51 92 173 80 76 53 11 34
12 Oct 2023 PES (S&D's party) suspends Slovakia's Smer-SD and Hlas-SD due to their coalition with the controversial SNS party.[15]
POLITICO Europe[16] 9 Oct 2023 EU27 720 40 151 49 89 172 93 82 44 21
Europe Elects[17] 30 Sep 2023 EU27 720 43 145 52 90 165 86 74 56 10 21
22 Sep 2023 The European Council approves the new apportionment in the European Parliament from 705 to 720 seats.[18]
Der Föderalist[19] 11 Sep 2023 EU27 720 43 147 46 91 162 77 74 36 43 15
45 147 50 96 171 90 89 32 24
705 42 144 46 90 157 77 72 35 41 13
44 144 50 95 165 89 87 31 21
POLITICO Europe[20] 7 Sep 2023 EU27 705 42 146 46 91 167 93 76 44 21
Europe Elects[21] 31 Aug 2023 EU27 720 38 149 53 90 164 83 75 58 10 15
POLITICO Europe[22] 9 Aug 2023 EU27 705 45 145 48 89 165 89 77 47 20
Europe Elects[23] 31 Jul 2023 EU27 705 45 143 49 90 157 82 82 55 12 14
Der Föderalist[24] 17 Jul 2023 EU27 705 41 136 48 94 160 79 70 36 41 24
43 137 52 99 167 89 87 31 30
Der Föderalist[25] 22 May 2023 EU27 705 49 137 50 92 162 79 67 33 36 25
50 137 54 99 172 82 83 28 35
Europe Elects[26] 28 Apr 2023 EU27 705 51 141 49 89 163 85 64 51 11 22
Der Föderalist[27] 27 Mar 2023 EU27 705 44 137 42 94 162 78 68 38 42 25
46 141 46 102 170 81 84 35 29
Der Föderalist[28] 1 Feb 2023 EU27 705 50 135 42 96 168 78 65 37 34 33
52 138 47 103 172 82 80 31 34
Der Föderalist[29] 6 Dec 2022 EU27 705 51 136 44 93 166 79 64 37 35 30
53 139 50 100 170 83 80 30 31
Europe Elects[30] 7 Dec 2022 EU27 705 49 142 56 100 158 84 63 46 7 16
Europe Elects[31] 1 Nov 2022 EU27 705 55 135 53 106 162 81 66 41 6 27
Der Föderalist[32] 12 Oct 2022 EU27 705 52 127 42 100 169 79 63 35 38 42
54 130 48 108 174 84 80 27 44
Der Föderalist[33] 20 Aug 2022 EU27 705 52 134 47 98 170 75 63 27 39 36
54 137 53 107 175 80 76 23 38
Der Föderalist[34] 22 Jun 2022 EU27 705 54 133 44 101 165 77 64 31 36 32
56 136 54 106 168 81 79 25 32
Der Föderalist[35] 25 Apr 2022 EU27 705 59 139 39 97 157 78 64 37 35 18
60 143 49 102 159 84 76 32 16
Der Föderalist[36] 1 Mar 2022 EU27 705 53 139 36 98 158 78 62 45 36 19
55 142 44 105 160 109 62 28 18
Europe Elects[37] 8 Jan 2022 EU27 705 49 152 55 99 158 78 62 35 17 6
Der Föderalist[38] 4 Jan 2022 EU27 705 51 142 39 99 165 73 62 34 40 23
53 146 43 105 166 102 62 28 20
Europe Elects[39] 7 Dec 2021 EU27 705 50 155 55 103 146 81 75 36 4 9
Der Föderalist[40] 8 Nov 2021 EU27 705 50 144 42 96 155 75 72 36 35 11
52 148 48 107 156 23 120 51 8
Europe Elects[41] 4 Nov 2021 EU27 705 50 155 51 102 151 81 75 35 5 4
Europe Elects[42] 8 Oct 2021 EU27 705 50 154 47 94 156 78 75 36 15 2
Der Föderalist[43] 13 Sep 2021 EU27 705 54 141 42 98 160 70 75 33 32 19
56 145 48 107 160 22 116 51 15
Der Föderalist[44] 21 Jul 2021 EU27 705 52 133 45 97 167 71 74 31 35 34
54 138 49 108 168 23 117 48 30
Europe Elects[45] 9 Jul 2021 EU27 705 52 144 55 94 156 75 77 34 18 12
Europe Elects[46] 5 Jun 2021 EU27 705 51 146 58 92 155 76 74 35 18 9
Der Föderalist[47] 24 May 2021 EU27 705 50 125 50 95 167 74 73 33 38 42
52 130 54 109 167 87 74 32 37
Europe Elects[48] 2 May 2021 EU27 705 52 144 56 93 158 75 74 34 19 14
Europe Elects[49] 2 Apr 2021 EU27 705 51 151 52 93 159 74 74 32 19 8
Der Föderalist[50] 29 Mar 2021 EU27 705 52 136 46 96 164 71 73 34 33 28
54 141 49 109 164 85 73 30 23
3 Mar 2021 Hungary's Fidesz party leaves the EPP Group.[51]
Der Föderalist[52] 2 Feb 2021 EU27 705 52 135 45 94 184 70 71 21 33 49
53 141 48 107 184 73 71 28 49
Europe Elects[53] 5 Jan 2021 EU27 705 55 138 47 97 190 73 72 22 11 52
Der Föderalist[54] 9 Dec 2020 EU27 705 52 136 47 93 188 67 73 20 29 52
53 140 40 103 188 73 73 25 48
Europe Elects[55] 2 Dec 2020 EU27 705 55 136 48 95 195 68 73 23 12 59
Europe Elects[56] 31 Oct 2020 EU27 705 54 136 48 93 197 70 74 24 9 61
Der Föderalist[57] 12 Oct 2020 EU27 705 51 127 49 96 193 67 71 21 30 66
52 136 52 102 193 71 71 28 – 57
Europe Elects[58] 4 Oct 2020 EU27 705 55 136 49 95 195 71 77 23 4 59
Europe Elects[59] 31 Aug 2020 EU27 705 55 134 49 96 196 71 75 24 5 62
Europe Elects[60] 14 Aug 2020 EU27 705 54 134 49 97 198 70 75 23 5 64
Europe Elects[61] 24 Jul 2020 EU27 705 54 133 48 97 198 71 77 24 3 65
Europe Elects[62] 28 May 2020 EU27 705 55 135 47 98 197 70 77 23 3 62
Europe Elects[63] 30 Apr 2020 EU27 705 55 140 46 94 193 72 78 23 4 53
Europe Elects[64] 31 Mar 2020 EU27 705 57 135 51 92 188 72 83 21 6 53
Europe Elects[65] 29 Feb 2020 EU27 705 56 133 55 99 184 68 85 21 6 51
Europe Elects[66] 31 Jan 2020 EU27 705 55 130 53 101 182 70 85 23 6 52
31 Jan 2020 The United Kingdom leaves the European Union.[67]
Europe Elects[68] 31 Dec 2019 EU27 705 54 131 52 102 182 70 86 25 3 51
Europe Elects[69] 31 Dec 2019 EU28 751 53 153 52 103 177 103 82 25 3 24
Europe Elects[1] 30 Nov 2019 EU28 751 49 157 61 107 176 95 80 25 1 19
Europe Elects[1] 31 Aug 2019 EU28 751 46 151 62 115 175 92 78 30 2 24
Europe Elects[1] 30 Sep 2019 EU28 751 48 151 63 118 170 87 79 32 3 19
Europe Elects[1] 31 Aug 2019 EU28 751 47 154 64 116 166 89 80 32 3 12
Europe Elects[1] 31 Jul 2019 EU28 751 48 153 65 117 168 85 79 33 3 15
Europe Elects[1] 30 Jun 2019 EU28 751 46 145 74 119 167 64 80 54 2 22
Redistribution of seats after Brexit 1 Feb 2020 EU27 705 40 148 68 97 187 62 76 27 – 39
2019 European Parliament election 26 May 2019 EU28 751 41 154 74 108 182 62 73 57 – 28

Popular vote

This section needs to be updated. Please help update this article to reflect recent events or newly available information. (November 2023)

The following table shows the projected popular vote share for the groups in the EU Parliament aggregated on the European level. EU27 excludes the United Kingdom in this context. EU28 includes the United Kingdom.

Organisation Release
date 		Area The Left S&D Greens/EFA Renew EPP ECR ID NI Others Lead
Europe Elects[30] 7 Dec 2022 EU27 7.2% 18.8% 8.1% 11.7% 21.2% 11.2% 8.9% 5.5% 7.2% 2.4%
Europe Elects[31] 1 Nov 2022 EU27 8.0% 18.3% 8.1% 12.0% 21.6% 11.3% 8.7% 5.7% 6.1% 3.3%
Europe Elects[37] 8 Jan 2022 EU27 6.7% 20.6% 7.2% 11.9% 20.7% 10.3% 8.8% 5.0% 8.8% 0.1%
Europe Elects[39] 7 Dec 2021 EU27 7.0% 20.4% 7.4% 13.6% 17.9% 10.3% 10.4% 4.8% 6.9% 1.2%
Europe Elects[41] 4 Nov 2021 EU27 6.9% 20.7% 7.2% 13.0% 19.5% 10.7% 10.2% 5.3% 6.5% 1.2%
Europe Elects[42] 8 Oct 2021 EU27 7.3% 20.3% 7.2% 12.0% 20.3% 10.5% 10.3% 5.3% 6.8% Tie
Europe Elects[45] 9 Jul 2021 EU27 7.2% 17.9% 8.0% 11.8% 21.2% 10.3% 10.6% 5.0% 8.0% 3.3%
Europe Elects[46] 5 Jun 2021 EU27 7.8% 18.0% 9.1% 11.4% 20.6% 10.5% 10.4% 5.0% 7.1% 2.6%
Europe Elects[63] 2 May 2021 EU27 7.9% 18.3% 8.5% 11.3% 20.3% 10.5% 10.6% 5.1% 7.4% 2.0%
Europe Elects[64] 2 Apr 2021 EU27 8.0% 18.7% 8.2% 11.2% 21.6% 10.2% 10.8% 4.9% 6.3% 2.9%
3 Mar 2021 Hungary's Fidesz party leaves the EPP Group.[51]
Europe Elects[53] 2 Mar 2021 EU27 7.9% 18.9% 7.5% 11.1% 23.1% 10.3% 10.8% 3.8% 6.6% 4.2%
Europe Elects[53] 2 Feb 2021 EU27 8.2% 18.6% 7.5% 10.9% 24.4% 10.1% 10.5% 3.8% 6.0% 5.8%
Europe Elects[53] 31 Dec 2020 EU27 8.4% 18.9% 7.5% 10.9% 24.1% 10.2% 10.5% 3.6% 5.9% 5.2%
Europe Elects[55] 2 Dec 2020 EU27 8.2% 18.5% 7.7% 10.9% 24.8% 9.5% 10.5% 3.8% 6.0% 6.3%
Europe Elects[56] 31 Oct 2020 EU27 7.6% 18.4% 7.7% 10.8% 25.0% 9.9% 10.6% 4.0% 6.1% 6.6%
Europe Elects[58] 4 Oct 2020 EU27 7.9% 17.9% 7.8% 11.4% 24.4% 9.7% 11.0% 4.1% 5.7% 6.5%
Europe Elects[59] 31 Aug 2020 EU27 8.1% 18.3% 7.4% 11.5% 25.0% 9.6% 10.9% 4.1% 5.2% 6.7%
Europe Elects[60] 14 Aug 2020 EU27 8.0% 18.0% 7.2% 11.5% 25.3% 9.4% 10.8% 3.8% 6.0% 7.3%
Europe Elects[61] 24 Jul 2020 EU27 8.3% 17.9% 7.4% 11.6% 25.7% 9.5% 10.9% 4.1% 4.6% 7.8%
Europe Elects[62] 28 May 2020 EU27 8.2% 18.0% 7.2% 11.3% 25.2% 9.6% 11.1% 4.0% 5.4% 7.2%
Europe Elects[63] 30 Apr 2020 EU27 8.2% 18.5% 7.2% 10.9% 25.3% 9.8% 11.4% 3.9% 4.7% 6.8%
Europe Elects[64] 31 Mar 2020 EU27 8.5% 18.2% 8.0% 10.7% 24.1% 10.0% 11.8% 3.8% 4.9% 5.9%
Europe Elects[65] 29 Feb 2020 EU27 9.1% 18.0% 8.4% 10.9% 22.7% 9.7% 12.5% 3.8% 4.9% 4.7%
Europe Elects[66] 31 Jan 2020 EU27 8.0% 18.6% 8.4% 12.4% 20.5% 12.1% 12.1% 4.0% 3.9% 1.9%
31 Jan 2020 The United Kingdom leaves the European Union.[67]
Europe Elects[1] 31 Dec 2019 EU28 8.1% 18.8% 8.2% 11.8% 20.9% 12.4% 11.9% 4.2% 3.7% 2.1%
Europe Elects[1] 30 Nov 2019 EU28 8.0% 18.4% 8.4% 12.3% 20.3% 12.0% 12.0% 4.0% 3.8% 1.9%
Europe Elects[1] 31 Oct 2019 EU28 6.5% 17.8% 8.3% 13.1% 20.3% 10.0% 11.3% 4.8% 7.9% 2.5%
Europe Elects[1] 30 Sep 2019 EU28 6.6% 19.5% 8.3% 12.3% 19.6% 9.7% 11.3% 4.8% 7.9% 0.1%
Europe Elects[1] 31 Aug 2019 EU28 6.9% 19.0% 8.7% 12.9% 20.0% 9.6% 11.4% 5.6% 5.9% 1.0%
Europe Elects[1] 31 Jul 2019 EU28 6.6% 19.0% 9.4% 12.8% 19.3% 9.3% 11.5% 5.3% 6.7% 0.3%
Europe Elects[1] 30 Jun 2019 EU28 6.9% 18.9% 10.3% 13.3% 19.1% 9.8% 11.4% 5.1% 5.2% 0.2%
2019 European Parliament election[70] 26 May 2019 EU27 7.0% 18.9% 11.2% 12.3% 22.6% 8.1% 11.5% 4.3% 4.1% 3.7%
2019 European Parliament election[1] EU28 6.5% 18.5% 11.7% 13.0% 21.0% 8.2% 10.8% 4.8% 5.5% 2.5%

National opinion polling

Austria

Main article: 2024 European Parliament election in Austria § Opinion polling

Czechia

Main article: 2024 European Parliament election in the Czech Republic § Opinion polling

Denmark

Main article: 2024 European Parliament election in Denmark § Opinion polling

Estonia

Main article: 2024 European Parliament election in Estonia § Opinion polling

France

Main article: 2024 European Parliament election in France § Opinion polling

Germany

Main article: 2024 European Parliament election in Germany § Opinion polling

Greece

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size ND
EPP 		SYRIZA
Left 		PASOK
S&D 		KKE
NI 		XA[a]
NI 		EL
ECR 		MeRA25
Left 		PE
NI 		SP
NI 		NIKI
NI 		NA
Left 		Other Lead
GPO/Star[71] 20–25 Jan 2024 1,100 38.8 14.0 14.2 9.6 — 7.2 2.7 2.6 2.2 3.3 3.0 2.4 24.6
MRB/Open[72] 22–24 Jan 2024 1,000 36.1 12.1 12.1 9.3 — 9.5 2.8 4.0 2.8 3.7 2.7 4.8 24.0
Marc/Ant1[73] 17–23 Jan 2024 1,092 37.1 12.6 16.8 9.4 — 7.0 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.1 2.4 2.6 20.3
Interview/Politic[74] 10–15 Jan 2024 2,388 31.5 14.1 14.2 10.8 — 8.0 — 2.3 2.6 5.2 4.1 7.2 17.3
Prorata/Attica[75] 5–9 Jan 2024 1,000 36.6 12.8 15.9 11.0 — 6.1 1.8 3.0 3.7 3.7 3.7 1.8 20.7
Alco/Alpha[76] 2–5 Jan 2024 1,002 35.3 13.8 14.3 11.3 — 6.9 2.4 3.3 3.2 3.3 2.7 3.6 21.0
Interview/Politic[77] 4–8 Dec 2023 2,356 34.0 16.1 14.4 7.9 — 7.6 — 3.0 2.3 3.8 2.9 7.9 17.9
GPO/Parapolitika[78] 5–7 Dec 2023 1,000 41.7 12.1 13.5 10.3 — 6.6 1.9 2.1 3.4 2.4 3.7 2.3 28.3
June 2023 parliamentary election 25 June 2023 – 40.6 17.8 11.8 7.7 — 4.4 2.5 3.2 4.7 3.7 — 3.6 22.8
May 2023 parliamentary election 21 May 2023 – 40.8 20.1 11.5 7.2 — 4.4 2.6 2.9 — 2.9 — 7.6 20.7
2019 parliamentary election 7 July 2019 – 39.9 31.5 8.3 5.3 2.9 3.7 3.4 1.5 1.3[b] — — 2.4 8.4
2019 election 26 May 2019 – 33.1 23.8 7.7 5.4 4.9 4.2 3.0[c] 1.6 1.5[b] — — 14.8 9.3
  1. ^ De facto banned, former XA members joined SP.
  2. ^ a b Alongside Union of Centrists.
  3. ^ 49 votes below the 3% threshold.

Hungary

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size 		Fidesz-
KDNP
NI–EPP 		DK
S&D 		Momentum
Renew 		MSZP
S&D 		P
G/EFA 		LMP
G/EFA 		Jobbik
NI 		Our Homeland
NI 		MKKP
NI 		Other Lead
Republikon Jun 2023 – 46 19 7 4 6 6 9 4 – 27
Nézőpont 15–17 May 2023 1,000 51 16 9 2 1 3 5 6 3 4 35
Závecz Research 28 Apr–5 May 2023 1,000 46 19 8 6 2 4 6 7 3 – 27
Nézőpont 2–4 Jan 2023 1,000 56 14 6 2 1 3 2 6 4 6 42
2022 parliamentary election 3 April 2022 – 54.1 34.4 5.9 3.3 2.3 19.7
2019 election 26 May 2019 – 52.6 16.1 9.9 6.6 2.2 6.3 3.3 2.6 0.4 36.5

The European Parliament considers Hungary a "hybrid regime of electoral autocracy" since 2022.[79]

Italy

Main article: 2024 European Parliament election in Italy § Opinion polling and seat projections

Portugal

Main article: 2024 European Parliament election in Portugal § Opinion polling

Romania

Main article: 2024 European Parliament election in Romania § Opinion polls

Slovenia

Fieldwork date Polling firm Publisher(s) Sample size SDS
EPP 		SLS
EPP 		GS
Renew 		SD
S&D 		NSi
EPP 		Levica
Left 		Logar
NI 		Prebilič
NI 		Rupar
NI 		Others Lead Source
4–7 Dec 2023 Ninamedia – 700 19.9 5.1 15.8 15.6 8.6 5.5 17.0 11.3 1.2 – 2.2 [80]
24 April 2022 2022 parliamentary election – – 23.5 3.4 40.8 6.7 6.9 4.5 — — — 14.3 17.3
26 May 2019 2019 election – – 26.2 19.4 18.6 11.1 6.4 — — — 9.7 6.8

Spain

Main article: 2024 European Parliament election in Spain § Opinion polls

See also

References

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