Battle of Bakhmut
Part of the battle of Donbas in the Russian invasion of Ukraine
Battle of Bakhmut 2022 View of Bakhmut in February 2023
Date 1 August 2022 – 20 May 2023[1] (1 year, 10 months and 3 days) Location Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine 48°35′N 38°0′E / 48.583°N 38.000°E / 48.583; 38.000 Status Ongoing
Belligerents
Russia  Donetsk People's Republic  Luhansk People's Republic	Ukraine
Commanders and leaders
File:Flag of the Wagner Group (variant).svg Yevgeny Prigozhin[2]	Oleksandr Tarnavskyi[3]
Units involved
File:Flag of the Wagner Group (variant).svg PMC Wagner[4]  Russian Armed Forces DNR People's Militia[5]	Ukrainian Armed Forces National Guard of Ukraine[6]
Strength
Western estimate: 46,000–66,000+[7][8]	Western estimate: 30,000[9] Per Wagner: 80,000[10]
Casualties and losses
Western estimate: 20,000–30,000 killed or wounded (6,000–10,000 killed)[11][12][13] US and Ukrainian estimates: 80,000 casualties, including 20,000 killed (1 Aug.–1 Dec. 2022)[14][15][16][17] 100,000+ casualties, including 20,000+ killed (1 Dec. 2022–1 May 2023)[18][19][20][21]	NATO estimate: One-fifth of the number of Russian casualties[22][23] Per DPR: 15,000–20,000 killed[24][25]
4,000+ civilians killed[13] See Casualties for more details.

The battle of Bakhmut is an ongoing series of military engagements in and near the city of Bakhmut between the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the Russian Armed Forces during the larger battle for Donbas. While the shelling of Bakhmut began in May 2022, the main assault towards the city started on 1 August after Russian forces advanced from the direction of Popasna following a Ukrainian withdrawal from that front.^[26] The main assault force primarily consists of mercenaries from the Russian paramilitary organization Wagner Group, supported by regular Russian troops and DPR and LPR separatist elements.^[5][27][4]

As of late 2022, following Ukraine's Kharkiv and Kherson counteroffensives, the Bakhmut–Soledar front became an important focus of the war, being one of the few front lines in Ukraine where Russia remained on the offensive.^[28] Attacks on the city intensified in November 2022 as assaulting Russian forces were reinforced by units redeployed from the Kherson front, together with newly mobilized recruits.^[29][30] By this time, much of the front line had descended into positional trench warfare, with both sides suffering high casualties without any significant advances.^[31] By using human wave attacks composed by former convicts, Wagner troops were able to gradually gain ground,^[32][33] and by February 2023, they captured territory in the north and south of Bakhmut and threatened encirclement, forcing Ukrainian forces to slowly pull out into the city,^[34][35] and the battle turned into fierce urban warfare.^[34] By March 2023, Russian forces captured the eastern half of the city, up to the Bakhmutka river, and continued to advance into Ukrainian-controlled parts of Bakhmut.^[36][37] The intensity of the battle and the high number of casualties has been compared to the Battle of Verdun in World War I.^[38][39][40]

On 20 May 2023, Wagner Group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin and the Russian defence ministry both claimed that Bakhmut was completely captured. Ukraine denied Prigozhin's initial claim and said heavy clashes for the city were ongoing,^[41][42][43] but it did not immediately respond to the Russian ministry's statement.^[44]

Background

Bakhmut, formerly known as Artemivsk, was the site of the 2014 Battle of Artemivsk between Ukraine and the self-declared separatist Donetsk People's Republic. Pro-Russian separatists had captured parts of the city during the 2014 pro-Russian unrest in Ukraine in April, and a Ukrainian special forces unit together with the National Guard were dispatched to expel the separatists from the city. The separatists were expelled to the city's outskirts where clashes continued until July 2014, when they finally retreated from the area.^[46]

During the Russian invasion of Ukraine, a key Russian goal was to capture the Donbas region, consisting of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. The initial push for Bakhmut was part of an attempt to encircle the Ukrainian forces at the Sievierodonetsk-Lysychansk salient; together with another push from the Lyman direction, it would create a pocket and trap Ukrainian forces there.^[47] Starting on 17 May, Russian forces began shelling Bakhmut, killing five people including a two-year-old child.^[48][49]

After the fall of Popasna on 22 May, Ukrainian forces withdrew away from the city to reinforce positions at Bakhmut.^[26] Meanwhile, Russian forces managed to advance on the Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway, endangering the remaining Ukrainian troops in the Lysychansk-Sievierodonetsk area.^[50][51] The Russian checkpoint along the highway was later demolished, although fighting resumed on 30 May along the Kostiantynivka-Bakhmut highway, where Ukrainian forces successfully defended the highway.^[52][53]

Shelling of Bakhmut continued throughout the rest of June and July, escalating after the battle of Siversk began on 3 July.^[54] Following the battles of Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk in early July, Russian and separatist forces captured all of Luhansk oblast, and the battlefield shifted towards the cities of Bakhmut, and Soledar. On 25 July, Ukrainian forces withdrew from the Vuhlehirska Power Station, along with the nearby town of Novoluhanske, giving Russian and separatist forces a "small tactical advantage" towards Bakhmut.^[55] Two days later on 27 July, Russian shelling of Bakhmut killed three civilians and wounded three more.^[56]

Prior to the battle in Bakhmut, Ukrainian Brigadier General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi claimed that Russia held a five-to-one manpower advantage over Ukraine along the eastern front.^[57]

Battle

Early shelling and Russian encroachment (August–October 2022)

On 1 August, Russian forces launched massive ground attacks on settlements south and southeast of Bakhmut. Both the Russian Ministry of Defense and pro-Russian Telegram pages claimed that the battle of Bakhmut had begun.^[58][59] The following day, Ukraine reported that Russian forces had increased airstrikes and shelling of Bakhmut, beginning a ground attack on the southeastern part of the city.^[60] On 4 August, Wagner Group mercenaries managed to break through Ukrainian defenses and reach Patrice Lumumba street on the eastern outskirts of Bakhmut.^[61] In the following days, Russian forces continued to push towards Bakhmut from the south, with the Ukrainian general staff stating on 14 August that Russian forces had achieved "partial success" near Bakhmut, but offering no specifics.^[62]

Night shelling in the city center on 21 September burned the Martynov Palace of Culture, where the humanitarian headquarters worked. During the extinguishing of the fire, the local fire department was shelled, which reported that two SES staff were injured and equipment damaged.^[63] At night, a five-story building was partially destroyed by Russian shelling.^[64][65] A Russian missile strike on 22 September destroyed the main bridge across the Bakhmutka river that bisects the city, disrupting both civilian travel and Ukrainian military logistics.^[66]

By 26 September, the 144th Guards Motor Rifle Division, which had a prewar strength of over 12,000 troops, had been largely destroyed and rendered combat ineffective as a result of heavy casualties sustained in the fighting.^[67][68]

On 7 October, Russian forces advanced into the villages of Zaitseve and Opytne on the southern and southeastern outskirts of Bakhmut, while on 10 October, the UK Defence Ministry claimed that Russian troops advanced closer to Bakhmut.^[69][70] On 12 October, Russian forces claimed to have captured Opytne, located 3 km south of Bakhmut, and Ivanhrad, although these towns were still contested.^[71] Ukrainian sources said a minor counteroffensive on 24 October pushed Russian forces from some factories on the eastern outskirts of the city, along Patrice Lumumba street.^[72]

Winter escalation (November–December 2022)

By early November, much of the fighting around Bakhmut had descended into trench warfare conditions, with neither side making any significant breakthroughs and hundreds of casualties reported daily amid fierce shelling and artillery duels.^[73][31] On 1 November, Ukrainian journalist Yurii Butusov [uk] described the evolving nature of the battle in an interview. Butusov noted that Russian forces had suffered "huge losses every day" assaulting Bakhmut and its outskirts since early May, but insisted that they were adapting their tactics against increasingly exhausted Ukrainian defenders. He noted that the Russians were concentrating multiple small groups of infantry to break defense lines on "narrow" sections of the front.^[74]

Russian forces breached defense lines on Bakhmut's southern approach, capturing the villages of Andriivka, Ozarianivka, and Zelenopillia, and making minor advances in Opytne through 28–29 November.^[75][76] Wagner troops attacked Kurdyumivka, adjacent to Ozarianivka, with some Russian milbloggers claiming the settlement was captured.^[77] Russian forces also attacked Ukrainian positions southeast of Bakhmut.^[78] On 3 December, Serhii Cherevatyi, a spokesperson for Ukraine's Eastern Command, described the Bakhmut front as "the most bloody, cruel and brutal sector ... in the Russian-Ukrainian war so far", adding that the Russians had conducted 261 artillery attacks in the past day alone.^[79]

The same day, a Georgia military volunteer told the media that a group of Georgian volunteers had been surrounded during clashes near Bakhmut. The commander was wounded and five or six volunteers, serving in Ukraine's 57th Brigade, had been killed, prompting Georgian president Salome Zourabichvili to express condolences.^[80] On 6–7 December, the Russian defense ministry claimed that their forces, including Wagner fighters, had successfully repelled Ukrainian counterattacks south of Bakhmut.^[81] The commander of the Ukraine National Guard's Svoboda Battalion, defending Bakhmut's southern flank, said they were "fighting for every bush" and predicted Russia would struggle to overcome a canal above and behind Kudriumivka.^[82]

On 9 December, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy accused Russia of "destroying" Bakhmut, calling it "another Donbas city that the Russian army turned into burnt ruins". Former soldier and eyewitness to the battle Petro Stone called the Bakhmut front a "meat grinder", saying the Russians were "covering Bakhmut with fire 24/7".^[83] Soldiers of Ukraine's 24th Mechanized Brigade recounted recent battlefield engagements to media, such as one multi-day firefight with 50 Russian troops dug into a treeline where in some places "we were only 100 metres apart". Ukrainian soldiers claimed that front line Russian troops often attacked with little tank support, with Wagner PMC fighters serving as the main assault troops and under-equipped mobiks (recently mobilized Russian recruits) holding defensive positions. One Ukrainian artillerymen alleged that "80 percent" of the remaining civilian population, surviving in basements and supplied by mobile grocery trucks that periodically enter the city, was pro-Russian.^[84][33]

On 11–13 December, Russian sources claimed that Wagner fighters had breached defenses in east Bakhmut, occupying the northern section of Fyodor Maksimenko Street in Zabakhmutka district^[82] and having advanced along Patrice Lumumba street in the industrial zone, fully capturing the Siniat ALC factory and sparkling wine/"artwinery" plant. On the outskirts, Wagner also purportedly stormed Pidhorodne, located on Bakhmut's northeastern flank, and made minor advances amid heavy fighting in Opytne, on the southern approach to Bakhmut.^[85][86] The claims of Russian advances were not independently verified at the time, but the Ukrainian General Staff confirmed clashes in Bakhmutske, Soledar, and Pidhorodne, though it claimed it repelled all assaults. On 11 December a railway bridge over the E40 (M-03) highway north of Bakhmut was destroyed; the Russians accused the Ukrainians of demolishing it to hamper future Russian advances towards Sloviansk.^{[87][88][non-primary source needed][89]}

Around the same time, rumours emerged that the 93rd Mechanized Brigade was going to be rotated out of Bakhmut due the high casualties. Ukrainian high command did not confirm nor deny the rumours but clarified that there were planned rotations, replacement and redeployment of units to other fronts.^[90]

On 13 December, Russian sources claimed that proper urban street fighting had begun in the eastern and southeastern sectors of Bakhmut, particularly along Pershotravnevyy avenue up to Dobroliubova street in Zabakhmutka, while also claiming that 90% of Opytne had been captured amid fierce Ukrainian resistance. The Ukrainian General Staff said they successfully repelled assaults northeast and south of Bakhmut from the Soledar and Kurdiumivka directions, respectively.^{[91][92][93][94]} On 17 December, footage emerged online of trenches in Bakhmut's city center, indicating Ukrainian defenders were preparing for urban combat.^[95]

On 18–19 December, Ukrainian forces, purportedly including dismounted infantry supported by British-donated Wolfhound Tactical Supply Vehicles, counterattacked along Fyodor Maksimenko Street and pushed Wagner forces back to the eastern outskirts of the suburban area amid "grinding" street clashes. Meanwhile, Ukraine's Joint Forces Task Force reported repelling "five to seven" Russian infiltration groups near Bakhmut daily.^[96][97] A Ukrainian commander reported that an abundance of drone surveillance allowed for quick responses to small Russian assaults on the outskirts, while also alleging that Russia did not control Bakhmut's eastern industrial zone. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a Western think tank and war observer, could not independently verify the claim of Ukraine entirely controlling the outskirts at the time.^[98]

On 20–21 December, President Zelenskyy made an unannounced visit to the Bakhmut front, where he met with soldiers, awarded medals and delivered speeches.^[99] Meanwhile, heavy shelling and fighting on Bakhmut's outskirts^[98][100] continued as Russian forces continuously attempted to break entrenched Ukrainian positions on the city's flanks. Reportedly, Wagner fighters were assaulting strongholds in Bakhmutske, Pidhorodne, and Klishciivka, located along Bakhmut's northeastern and southwestern flanks respectively, while the Ukrainians continued to hold northern Opytne, blunting Russia's advance from the south.^[101]

On 26 December, Ukraine's governor of Donetsk, Pavlo Kyrylenko, said over 60 percent of Bakhmut's infrastructure was damaged or destroyed.^[102] The ISW judged that Russia's advance on Bakhmut had "culminated" by 28 December, assessing that Russian and Wagner forces had grown increasingly unable to sustain the previous scale of infantry assaults and artillery barrages.^[103] By early January 2023, the pace of fighting and rate of artillery fire in the Bakhmut sector had significantly decreased, and The Kyiv Independent remarked that the battle was "near culmination".^[104]

Fall of Soledar and near-encirclement (January–April 2023)

Following a local offensive in early January 2023, Russian forces captured the nearby town of Soledar, located 20 kilometres (12 mi) north of Bakhmut, by 16 January 2023.^[105] In its 7 January assessment, the ISW had considered the capture of Soledar as helping Russian forces to advance on Bakhmut from the north, although they claimed that Russian troops would need to cut off the T0513 highway between Siversk and Bakhmut to strangle Ukrainian supply lines to Bakhmut.^[106]

In February, Russian forces solidified gains north of Bakhmut and began pressuring Ukrainian troops on the northern front, making incremental gains in the towns north of the city.^[34] On 1 February, The New York Times reported that Russians had increased the intensity of attacks on Bakhmut and its surrounding areas.^[107] Days later on 5 February, the British Ministry of Defence stated that Russian troops were able to fire upon the M03 and H32 roads north of the city, the main Ukrainian supply route for northern Bakhmut.^[108] On 11 February, Russian forces captured the village of Krasna Hora northeast of Bakhmut.^[109] Around this time, analysts suggested Russian losses had increased to 820 casualties a day between Bakhmut and the battle of Vuhledar.^[110] By 13 February, the Ukrainian government claimed their defenses in the village of Paraskoviivka were waning, with fierce battles around the clock.^[111][112] By 22 February, Russian forces encircled Bakhmut from the east, south, and north.^[113]

By 3 March, Ukrainian soldiers destroyed two key bridges, creating the possibility for a controlled fighting withdrawal.^[35] On 4 March, Bakhmut's deputy mayor told news services that there was street fighting but that Russian forces had not taken control of the city.^[114][115] On 4 March, the chief of the Wagner Group said that the city was encircled except for one road still controlled by the Ukrainian military, as had been the case since 22 February.^[116] On 5 March Ukrainian commander Oleksandr Syrskyi said the fighting had reached the "highest level of tension".^[117]

On 7 March, Ukraine withdrew from areas of Bakhmut east of the Bakhmutka river,^{[36][37][118][119][120]} making the river the front line between the opposing forces.^[121] On 9 March, the MiG-17 Monument [de], which had become a symbol of Ukrainian resistance in Bakhmut during the battle, was destroyed by Russian forces.^[122] On 11 March, the United Kingdom's Ministry of Defence said that by this point in the fighting Wagner Group units were "taking the lead in fighting", and that the river had become a "killing zone" for Wagner units while at the same time Ukrainian forces were at risk of being cut off.^[121]

On 26 March, CNN reported that Wagner forces had claimed to fully capture the strategically significant Azom factory in Bakhmut.^[123] On 3 April, after taking the town hall, Wagner head Yevgeny Prigozhin claimed that from a "legal" point of view, Bakhmut had been taken.^[124] Kyiv mocked the claim, saying it had repelled numerous attacks in the city.^[125][126] On 6 April, Russian forces took control of the city center.^[127]

The head of Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, said they controlled more than 80% of the city prior to 18 April; Ukrainian officials stated that Ukraine "controlled considerably more than 20 percent of the city".^[128] On 17 April, the People's House [de] of the city was destroyed^[129] by retreating Ukrainian soldiers belonging to the 77th Airmobile Brigade to prevent the building from being used as a refuge by Russian forces.^[130] On 18 April, Ukrainian General Oleksandr Syrskyi reported that Russia was "increasing the activity of heavy artillery and the number of air strikes, turning the city into ruins".^[128]

On 26 April, Ukrainian Air Force dropped four 500-pound GBU-62/B JDAM glide bombs on a high rise building in the Russian controlled part of Bakhmut, possibly from two MiG-29s. Both sides have destroyed high rise buildings in Bakhmut to prevent them from being used “as ammo dumps, fighting positions and observation posts.”^[131]

On 1 May, Ukrainian spokesman Serhiy Cherevaty gave an estimate as to the current strength of Russian forces attacking the city. He stated that “on the Bakhmut direction, 25,600 personnel, 65 tanks, 450 armored fighting vehicles, 154 guns, 56 rocket salvo systems are fighting against us”.^[132]

The Institute for the Study of War assessed that by the beginning of May Ukraine had controled 1.89 square kilometers (4.54%) of the city.^[133] On 18 May, The New York Times reported that Ukraine had made small yet successfull advanced upon the Russians from the north and the southern borders of Bakhmut.^[134]

Ukrainian flanking counterattacks (since May 2023)

On 1 May, Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi said that Ukrainian forces had recaptured some parts of the city after a counter-attack,^[136] while Prigozhin said that his Wagner Group had advanced some 120 metres in exchange for the loss of some 86 fighters; he complained that there was a shortage of ammunition, with his forces needing 300 tonnes a day.^[136]

Within a few days Prigozhin threatened that he would withdraw all Wagner personnel from the city by 10 May, the day after Victory Day, and denounced Sergei Shoigu and Valery Gerasimov, saying: "because in the absence of ammunition [Wagner personnel are] doomed to perish senselessly."^{[137][138][139][140][141]}

On 6 May, Ukrainian military sources reported that the Russians were shelling the city with phosphorus munitions, with several videos and photos being released that showed the effects of the bombardment.^[142] The BBC, analyzing the footage, said that while the footage definitely showed Russian forces using some sort of incendiary munitions, it was unable to verify that it was phosphorus specifically.^[135]

Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov agreed to replace Wagner forces with Chechen units in the city according to Yevgeny Prigozhin.^[143] On May 7 Prigozhin announced that Valery Gerasimov would resume artillery ammunition distribution to the Wagner forces, that Wagner forces would be staying in Bakhmut, and that Sergey Surovikin would be acting as a intermediary between Wagner and the Russian Ministry of Defense.^[144] The ISW assessed that Gerasimov likely agreed to keep Kadyrov out of the Russian High Command and the situation showcased that the Russian Ministry of Defense is having difficulty commanding Wagner forces.^[144]

On 9 May, Prigozhin claimed that while his forces were forbidden to retreat, the Russian Army “ran away”. According to him, they “received a combat order, where it was said that withdrawal from the positions would be considered high treason. This, first of all, was aimed at us [Wagner Group – ed.]. If there is no ammunition, we will withdraw from our positions... Instead of fighting, we [Russian forces – ed.] are constantly having intrigues. We have a Ministry of Intrigue instead of the Ministry of Defence, so our army is running away. It’s running because the 72nd brigade today [on 9 May – ed.] lost 3 square kilometres, on which I lost about 500 people because it was a strategic foothold. They just ran away...". He also claimed that the Defence Ministry only gave his troops 10% of the ammunition that they promised to provide him.^[145]

The Ukrainians themselves later confirmed his account, with their 3rd Separate Assault Brigade stating on Telegram that "Prigozhin's report about the escape of the 72nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the Russian Armed Forces from the vicinities of Bakhmut and the "500 corpses" of Russians who remained there is true. The 3rd Assault Brigade is grateful for the publicity of our success at the front." Furthermore, Ukrainian military personnel also reported that within two days, on the southwestern vicinities of the city, attack aircraft of the 3rd Separate Assault Battalion, which belongs to the Azov Brigade, killed 64 invaders; data on the deaths of another 87 is being clarified. The brigade noted there are “Wagnerites” among these fighters. In addition, the defenders captured five Russians and destroyed several warehouses of the Russian ammunition storage, mortars and "more than one infantry fighting vehicle". They also claimed that the 6th and 8th companies of this brigade were completely destroyed, and that the 3rd Assault Detachment of the Wagner PMC suffered heavy losses.^[146][147]

Later, Ukrainian authorities published more details of the engagement, and of further counterattacks. General Oleksandr Syrskyi claimed that the Russians had been forced back over 2 km (1.2 miles) in the attack, with spokesman Serhiy Cherevaty further claiming that 11 IFVs, two armored personnel carriers, a light artillery tractor, five field ammunition depots, and one Zala UAV were destroyed. He also said that Prigozhin’s claim of ammunition shortages were false, with the Russians “pummeling” their positions.^{[148][149][150]}

On May 12, the ISW confirmed that Ukrainian forces had recaptured the Berkhivske Reservoir as well as limited successful counterattacks elsewhere in the city.^[151]

On 16 May, the Ukrainian Defense Ministry claimed that their forces had liberated 20 square kilometers in the north and south of the suburbs of Bakhmut, while also admitting that the Russians had made some advances in the city itself, by using both paratroopers and artillery.^[152]

On 18 May, Wagner Group head Yevgeny Prigozhin said that Russian military had withdrawn up to 570 meters (1,880 feet) to the north of the city, exposing Wagner's flanks, while his soldier had advanced up to 400 meters inside the city.^[153] On 19 May, both Ukrainian sources confirmed the Russian retreat around the city of Bakhmut. The advance claimed by Ukrainians was a mile in some areas or “150 to 1,700 metres”. A Ukrainian commander, Petro Podaru, said that Russia artillery fire has switched to try to stop Ukrainian forces from ”deliver(ing) more infantry, ammunition and other things” via access road to the West of Bakhmut.^[154] On the same day, the Ukrainians said that the Russians had recently deployed several thousand more troops to the Bakhmut front.^[155]

On 20 May, Prigozhin claimed the capture of Bakhmut city by Wagner forces, which would hand over the gained territories to the regular Russian forces before withdrawing. Claims of Wagner victory were denied by Ukraine.^[156] Ukrainian deputy minister of defence Hanna Maliar claimed that the "situation is critical", but Ukrainian forces were still in control of areas of the city.^[157] Later, the Russian Defense Ministry also claimed that the city had been captured.^[158] Additionally, in their 20 May report, the ISW was unable to confirm Prigozhin's claim and reiterated Maliar claim that fighting continues. They also noted that the Russian ministry of defense has not commented on the reported capture. They also noted that Prigozhin's purported withdrawal of Wagner forces will be unlikely as the Russian ministry of defense would have to redeploy uncommitted troops to the city to cover formerly Wagner held positions.^[159]

On 21 May, Ukrainian Defence Ministry said its forces were holding on to a sector of the city while partly encircling its outskirts.^[160]

Casualties

Due to the fog of war and deliberately unpublished casualty figures from both sides, the true number of military and civilian casualties due to the battle is unknown, although casualties are presumed to be heavy. Media outlets estimated hundreds of civilians and military personnel from both sides killed and wounded each day amid battlefield conditions reminiscent of the First and Second World Wars.^[161]

Military casualties

On 26 October, former Ukrainian presidential advisor Oleksii Arestovych claimed that 8,000 Russian soldiers had been killed in the last 1.5 months alone.^[162] On 10 November, the Ukrainians claimed that the Wagner Group had suffered nearly 140 casualties in the last 24 hours, including over 40 men killed, in fighting near Bakhmut.^[163] On 23 November, Arestovych claimed that, after Russian attacks on Bakhmut, 2,000 Russian bodies were left “piled up” outside the city.^[164] In early December the Ukrainian government estimated that 50–100 Russian soldiers were killed in the Bakhmut sector each day.^[165] Some Ukrainian commanders estimated that Russia suffered 100–300 casualties in Bakhmut alone on some days.^[166] On 22 December, John Kirby, spokesperson for the White House National Security Council, said that United States intelligence had indicated that about 1,000 Wagner fighters had been killed near Bakhmut in recent weeks.^[167] On 25 December, the Ukrainian military claimed Russia had lost 140 killed and 180 wounded on the Bakhmut front in the previous two days.^[168][169]

In early January 2023, a soldier of the Ukrainian National Guard claimed in an interview to UNIAN that Wagner suffered an almost 80% casualty rate in attacks as the wounded are not rescued and are left to die.^[170] On 1 February, the Associated Press reported that the Wagner Group had had more than 4,100 of its soldiers killed and an additional 10,000 wounded, with 1,000 dead in late November and early December 2022 near Bakhmut, according to the ISW.^[171] By 17 February 2023, the US had estimated that about 9,000 Wagner fighters had been killed and 21,000 had been wounded, with about half of those occurring since the middle of December 2022.^[172]

On 27 November, The New York Times reported a high level of casualties for both armies, also placing the number of Ukrainian wounded at 290 in the previous 36 hours.^[173] On 29 December, Advisor to the Office of the President of Ukraine Oleksii Arestovych said Ukraine was suffering "serious losses" along the Soledar–Bakhmut front, but claimed Russia was suffering even higher casualties.^[174][175] The New York Times reported that Ukraine could be sustaining hundreds of casualties on the Bakhmut front each day.^[176]

The Ukrainians claimed to have killed between 10,000 and 20,000 Russian soldiers by the beginning of January.^[177][178] Meanwhile, former presidential advisor Oleksiy Arestovych gave a figure of 60,000 Russians killed or wounded by December over the previous three months alone, and a total of over 80,000 since the battle began on 1 August, approximating a ratio of at least three soldiers wounded for every one killed.^{[179][180][181]} By February, both Arestoych and another Ukrainian official, Mykhailo Podolyak, increased the figures to a minimum of 30,000 Russian servicemen killed.^[182][183]

Other Ukrainian sources claimed that 17,000 Russian soldiers died between just 6 and 31 January, with 277 Russian soldiers killed and 258 injured on 31 January alone.^[184][185]

On 24 February, American General Mark Milley claimed that the Russians had lost between 1,100 to 1,200 soldiers killed “down around” Bakhmut the previous day alone, a death toll he compared with the battles of Iwo Jima and Shiloh. If accurate, this would make it one of the deadliest days of the war so far.^[186][187] On 26 February, Ukrainian Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov stated that the Russians were losing 500 men killed and another 900 wounded in action every day fighting for Bakhmut.^[188] On 1 March, the Ukrainians claimed that over 800 Russian soldiers had been killed over the past few days alone.^[189] On 5 March, Reznikov now claimed that Russian losses were 500 wounded and killed every day.^[190] On 13 March, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy claimed that another 1,100 Russians had been killed and 1,500 wounded over the past week.^[191] On 17 March, NATO estimated that the Russians were suffering 1,500 casualties per day, mainly from the fighting around Bakhmut. They also stated that Ukraine’s losses were “an order of magnitude less” in fighting where “several thousand” shells a day have been fired by both sides.^[192]

On March 24, the Ukrainians claimed to have killed 1,020 Russians in Bakhmut, with 4 tanks and 24 IFVs lost, while on 26 March, Ukraine claimed to have killed another 700 Russian troops in and to have destroyed 15 tanks and 15 IFVs. Another 560 Russian soldiers were claimed to have been killed around the city on 30 March, with one tank, eight IFVs and 12 artillery pieces lost to counter battery fire.^{[193][194][195]}

The Russians, for their part, have also claimed enormous losses for their opponents. Sergei Shoigu, the Russian Minister of Defence, claimed that 11,000 Ukrainian soldiers had been killed during the month of February alone, with another 220 killed on 13 March.^[196][191] At the beginning of April, a DPR official claimed between 15,000 and 20,000 Ukrainian soldiers had been killed during the battle.^[24][25]

On 18 March, the Ukrainians claimed to have killed 193 Russian troops and to have wounded another 199 in Bakhmut during the previous day’s fighting.^[197] Indeed, hundreds of soldiers from both sides are claimed to be killed and wounded each day, and that the death toll is constantly increasing.^{[121][198][199][200]} By 15 March, British diplomat Ian Stubbs claimed that the Russians were suffering up to 800 casualties for each kilometre gained during the battle.^[201]

On 9 April, the Ukrainians claimed that the Wagner Group was losing around 100 people a day, “counting only the dead”, and that the Russians were forced to deploy paratroopers and motorized brigades into the city because of the heavy losses that the group had suffered. Prigozhin himself later admitted on 30 April that his forces had lost 94 men killed in the city that day alone, with another 99 deaths the following day’s offensive actions. However, the figure is likely much higher, especially taking into account recent artillery strikes and tank raids on defensive Russian positions. He once again underscored that they are taking more than 5 times as many losses as he expected.^{[202][203][204]}

On 13 April, the Ukrainians claimed to have inflicted more than 4,500 casualties on the Russians in the previous two weeks alone.^[205]

Over the course of the May counteroffensive, the Ukrainians claimed to have taken numerous Russian prisoners, in addition to those killed or wounded. During the initial retreat of the 72nd Motorized Rifle Brigade on 9 May, 500 soldiers were killed, while five were captured. Another 203 Russians were killed, 216 were wounded, and five were captured on 10 May. On 11 May, 165 were “eliminated”, 216 injured, and one was taken prisoner. Finally, on 12 May, 190 soldiers were killed, 244 were wounded, and 15 were captured. By 15 May, the Ukrainians had advanced between 350 metres and two kilometres, and killed another 149 Russians, wounded 160 and captured six.^{[206][207][208][209][210]} On 14 May, Russian military spokesman Igor Konashenkov announced that Colonel Vyacheslav Makarov, the commander of the Russian Army's 4th Motorized Infantry Brigade, was severely wounded in Bakhmut and died of his injuries whilst being evacuated from the battlefield. The deputy commander of the army corps for military-political work, Colonel Yevgeny Brovko was also killed.^[211]

Further attacks on 17 May resulted in a Ukrainian advance of 150 to 1,700 metres, and Russian casualties of 130 killed, 149 wounded and four captured. The following day, the Ukrainian 3rd Separate Assault Brigade advanced 2,000 metres in width and 700 metres in depth, with another 50 Russians being killed, 100 wounded and four prisoners. Meanwhile, on 19 May, the Ukrainian Armed Forces advanced up to 500 metres in different directions. 141 more Russian soldiers were killed, 220 were wounded and one was taken prisoner, with another 92 being killed and 156 wounded the following day.^{[212][213][214][215]}

In nearby Soledar, Wagner Group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin claimed on 12 January that his forces had killed 500 Ukrainian soldiers during the battle.^[216] Meanwhile, on 13 January, the Ukrainians claimed to have killed over 100 Russian soldiers during a Tochka-U missile strike on their positions.^[217]

On 9 March the BBC, quoting Western officials, estimated between 20,000 and 30,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded in the fighting around Bakhmut.^[218] On 1 May, White House national security spokesperson John Kirby stated that the Russians had suffered 100,000 casualties, including over 20,000 dead, fighting for Bakhmut just over the previous five months alone. He also said that half of these losses were from the Wagner Group. "It's really stunning, these numbers," Kirby added, saying the total is three times the number of American casualties in the Guadalcanal campaign in World War Two.^[19][18][20]

The casualty ratio was estimated to be 5 Russian soldiers killed for every Ukrainian soldier according to NATO. Ukraine claims the ratio is 7 to 1 killed in favour of Ukrainian soldiers.^[219]

According to Western analysts, the recent spike in casualties suffered by Russian forces during the battle as led to fears that the upcoming Ukrainian counteroffensive, planned for later in the spring, may become “carnage”. The White House this week, in an apparent attempt to portray President Vladimir Putin's military as badly degraded, said that about 20,000 Russians had been killed in action since December alone, as the Kremlin readied for a multi-prong offensive intended to break the Ukrainian resistance in multiple regions. Another 80,000 Russian personnel had been wounded in that time, National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told reporters. The US has said that such fierce fighting shows that the bloody carnage may become even worse after the start of Kyiv's counteroffensive to retake the occupied territories.^{[220][221][222]}

Civilian casualties

On 5 November, the deputy mayor of Bakhmut claimed that over 120 civilians had been killed in the city proper.^[225] In early December, only between 7,000 and 15,000 of Bakhmut's prewar population of 80,000 remained in the city.^[226][227] On 16 December, three civilians were wounded by shelling.^[228] By 13 January 2023, shelling in Bakhmut had killed at least an additional 22 civilians and wounded 72 since early December.^[229] Since 13 January, Russian attacks in Bakhmut have killed at least three more civilians.^[230][231] By 9 March 2023, the Ukrainians claimed over 4,000 civilians had been killed in the battle.^[13]

War crimes

In March 2023, a 12-second video of a captured Ukrainian soldier with a cigarette quietly saying "Slava Ukraini", who was then shot dead by an unseen perpetrator.^[232] Some Ukrainian media sources and bloggers suggested that the POW was Oleksandr Igorevich Matsievskyi, a soldier from Nizhyn who had been deployed to Bakhmut and gone missing in January.^[233]

On 8 April a video was posted on a pro-Russian social media channel, showing a pair of decapitated corpses on the ground beside a destroyed armoured vehicle. The video's (Russian-speaking) recorder, stating how the vehicle had been destroyed by a mine, laughed that "They killed them. Someone came up to them. They came up to them and cut their heads off." According to the channel the incident occurred in Bakhmut and was done by mercenaries from the Wagner Group.^[234] Another video posted on Twitter shows a soldier with a yellow armband (a symbol of the Ukrainian military) screaming before he is beheaded by a Russian-speaking soldier with a knife.^[235][236] Foliage in the background suggested the video was taken during the summer.^[234] The Institute for the Study of War also reported that an image of the head of a Ukrainian soldier mounted on a spike was circulating around Russian social media.^[234]

Analysis

Battlefield conditions

The battle of Bakhmut has been described as one of the bloodiest battles of the 21st century, with the battlefield being described as a "meat grinder" and a "vortex" for both the Ukrainian and Russian militaries.^[237][238] With extremely high casualties, costly ground assaults with very little ground gained, and shell-pocked landscapes, volunteers, media, and government officials alike compared fighting in Bakhmut to battlefield conditions on the western front of World War I.^[239][240]

Retired U.S. Marine Corps Colonel Andrew Milburn, the leader of a foreign volunteer group in Ukraine called the Mozart Group and an eyewitness to the battle, compared conditions in the Bakhmut countryside to Passchendaele and the city itself to Dresden in World War II.^[241] On 11 January 2023, Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak described the fighting ongoing at Bakhmut and Soledar as the bloodiest since the start of the invasion.^[242] Comparisons have also been made between Bakhmut and the battles of Verdun, the Somme and Stalingrad by both Western and Ukrainian officials.^{[243][244][245]}

On 22 March, UK MoD defence update said that "There is a realistic possibility that the Russian assault on the town (Bakhmut) is losing the limited momentum it had achieved, in part because some Russian Ministry of Defense units have been redeployed to other sectors."^[246]

On 25 March, Lt. General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, the Ukrainian commander-in-chief, wrote on Facebook that the war "is the toughest in the Bakhmut direction... due to the tremendous efforts of the defence forces, we are managing to stabilise the situation".^[247]

On 14 April, the UK MoD said that: "Russia has re-energised its assault on the Donetsk Oblast town of Bakhmut as forces of the Russian MoD and Wagner Group have improved co-operation...Ukrainian forces face significant resupply issues but have made orderly withdrawals from the positions they have been forced to concede."^[248]

On 15 May, Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi, Ukrainian Commander of Ground Forces, wrote on Telegram: "The advance of our troops along the Bakhmut direction is the first success of offensive actions in the defence of Bakhmut."^[249]

Personnel and tactics

Russian assault forces have primarily composed of Wagner Group mercenary contractors and ex-convicts, reinforcements from other front lines in Ukraine, and recently mobilized recruits the Ukrainians refer to as mobiks.^[33] Reportedly, Wagner's forces have consisted of a majority of recruited, under-trained ex-convicts and a minority of well-trained contractors serving as group commanders that operate efficiently and encrypt radio communications.^[82] Some observers likened Russian tactics to Soviet-style human wave attacks, repeatedly assaulting Ukrainian positions with waves of infantry.^[33][32] Some Ukrainian soldiers have alleged that Wagner used its recruited ex-convicts as first wave "human bait" to reveal Ukrainian positions, with those refusing to advance being threatened with "execution" by firing squads or barrier troops^{[250][251][32]} and those who were wounded in the assaults were usually not rescued.^[170]

Russia has targeted Bakhmut with Iranian made drones after 450 of them were sent to Russia in mid-October 2022.^[252] In late January 2023, Russia began supplanting Wagner units with better-trained National Guard of Russia (Rosgvardia) and paratroopers, enabling them to make further advances in the Bakhmut sector.^[253]

The Ukrainian defenders consist of a "hodgepodge of units", consisting initially of the 93rd Mechanized Brigade and the 58th Motorized Brigade, who were later reinforced by many other units—including special forces and territorial defense units—in order to fill in gaps caused by heavy casualties.^{[237][30][73]} Units are also constantly rotated to replenish casualties and prevent combat fatigue.^[90] On 10 January 2023, Polish think tank Rochan Consulting estimated Ukraine may have ten brigades fighting in Bakhmut, or around 30,000 personnel.^[254] Ukrainian commanders have utilized significant resources in Bakhmut, with their strategy being to keep Russia preoccupied with Bakhmut in order to prevent further offensives.^[255] Conversely, The New York Times reported that Ukraine's use of well-trained National Guard and infantry units against poorly-trained Wagner forces was tying down Ukraine's well-trained units and preventing Ukraine from conducting offensives not only in the present but for the future.^[256]

Strategic value

The overall strategic value of Bakhmut has been considered dubious by many analysts, observing that the resources and lives Russia has spent assaulting the city far outweigh its importance.^[257] The UK defence ministry and U.S. National Security Council have both insisted capturing Bakhmut would only be a "symbolic" victory for Russia rather than a strategic one.^[258][259] Some observers noted that Bakhmut is a key regional logistics and transport hub where two roads, the T0504 to Kostiantynivka and T0513 to Siversk, pass through.^[82][260] Ukrainian president Zelenskyy has attributed both tactical and symbolic value to Bakhmut, calling it a "fortress of our morale" and refused to order a tactical retreat from the city in March 2023, saying its capture would give Russia an "open road" to important cities in eastern Ukraine.^[261][255]

Jon Roozenbeek, British Academy postdoctoral fellow at the University of Cambridge, observed that securing Bakhmut would put Kramatorsk and Sloviansk within sufficient Russian artillery range. Others have concurred with this analysis.^[262][263] Konrad Muzyka, and expert on Russian security Mark Galeotti, argued that Russia's costly assault is a matter of both preserving prestige and sunk cost fallacy—that Russian forces had already expended so much manpower in the war effort on other fronts that they "may as well do everything they can" to seize the city.^[257]

Retired Ukrainian colonel Serhiy Hrabskyi suggested the Wagner Group was seeking glory in capturing Bakhmut, as leader Yevgeny Prigozhin is poised to reap significant monetary and political rewards if Wagner captures the city on behalf of the Russian government.^[28] Prighozhin himself had previously suggested Wagner was deliberately turning Bakhmut into a "meat grinder" to inflict heavy attritional casualties on Ukrainian forces.^[264] One Western official gave an inverse view, saying the battle is "giving Ukraine a unique opportunity to kill a lot of Russians", due to purportedly poor Russian tactics.^[265]